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Caleb Williams or Justin Herbert?

Caleb Williams or Justin Herbert? Both are QBs. Here is what each man's 2025 season was actually built on, updated Aug 17, 2026.

The file holds Caleb Williams's 2025 season — it just measures too few of these inputs for persistence to say what his was built on, here or against Justin Herbert.

The file holds Justin Herbert's 2025 season — it just measures too few of these inputs for persistence to say what his was built on, here or against Caleb Williams.

Figures are 2025 verified play-by-play (nflverse); scored Half-PPR. Repeatability is measured from year-over-year persistence across 2016 to 2025, not projected. Muffed publishes no projections, draft grades or start/sit advice.

Who led the NFL in completion percentage over expected in 2026?Who led the NFL in adjusted net yards per attempt in 2026?

Caleb Williams

QB · Chicago Bears

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Caleb Williams vs Justin Herbert, 2025

Verified 2025 figures for Caleb Williams and Justin Herbert, with each figure's rank in its source population
MetricCaleb WilliamsJustin Herbert
Half-PPR/G22.511.3
CPOE+3.313th-3.828th
ANY/A6.2319th4.8729th

A dash means the panel holds no qualifying figure for that player — usually too few games or attempts to clear the metric's floor, not a zero. Ranks are the source's own, against the population shown. Not shown, because neither player qualified: 2025 finish, Games, Snap share, Availability, EPA/dropback, Sack rate.

What repeats

Caleb Williams: UNSETTLEDJustin Herbert: UNSETTLED

The file holds Caleb Williams's 2025 season — it just measures too few of these inputs for persistence to say what his was built on, here or against Justin Herbert. The file holds Justin Herbert's 2025 season — it just measures too few of these inputs for persistence to say what his was built on, here or against Caleb Williams. The file holds both seasons and still doesn't separate them on durability — neither man leads the inputs that historically repeat. That is a finding, not a gap in the evidence.

“Repeats” is measured year-over-year persistence across 2016 to 2025 — opportunity carries between seasons, scoring rate largely does not. This describes what a 2025 season was built on. It is not a forecast, and Muffed publishes no projections, draft grades or start/sit advice. How we measure it.

Settle it — hear both stories

The same verified data, told as the story of each man's season.

Caleb Williams's episode →Justin Herbert's episode →

Related

What is Half-PPR?What is CPOE?What is ANY/A?All comparisons

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Cite this

Muffed, “Caleb Williams vs Justin Herbert, 2025 verified comparison,” muffed.ai/compare/caleb-williams-vs-justin-herbert. Through the 2026 season. Data via nflverse; NFL Next Gen Stats via nflverse.

Free to quote and link with credit. The underlying figures are recomputed from public play-by-play — see how we verify every number.

Source: Data via nflverse; NFL Next Gen Stats via nflverse. Updated Aug 17, 2026. How we verify our data.

Scored Half-PPR. Repeatability is measured year-over-year persistence across 2016 to 2025 (nflverse), not a projection.

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