Buccaneers 43, Panthers 13 — Week 7: 47 Runs, 261 Yards

Tampa Bay won 43-13 at Carolina on Sunday, led 33-6 at halftime and threw 11 passes all day. The offense scored on 6 of its 9 drives, four touchdowns and two field goals, and the defense added Calijah Kancey's fumble-return touchdown and two points on a blocked extra point. The Buccaneers took the ball away three times, recovered a muffed punt, and gave it away none.

The run game Smashed, and success rate leads the case: 55.3% of its 47 rush plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, for 261 yards and three touchdowns. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at +7.0, +0.15 a play against +0.03 through Week 6. Bucky Irving carried 24 times for 106 yards and two scores. The opening drive set the terms: from the Tampa Bay 30, Irving ran 10 times for 47 yards on a 14-play, 70-yard march, gained 2 on third and 1 at the Carolina 17 and 2 more on third and 1 at the 6, then went up the middle from the 4 for the touchdown. Kenny Gainwell ran 14 times for 88, and his 29 yards on first and 15 set up Irving's 1-yard score for 26-6. Sean Tucker went 46 yards through the left side for 43-6 early in the fourth; his other six carries gained 6, and he was stopped on third and 1 and fourth and 1 late.

The passing game was efficient in small doses, and EPA per play measures it: 11 pass plays worth +5.3, +0.48 a play against -0.25 through Week 6. Baker Mayfield, back for the first time since Week 3, completed 7 of 11 for 64 yards and a touchdown. Tez Johnson caught both his targets for 33 yards. The first was 19 yards deep right on third and 10 from the Carolina 45 on the opening drive, worth 12.0 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The second closed the half: Chris Godwin's 9-yard touchdown had come back on an illegal shift, and on second and 14 at the Carolina 14 with 12 seconds left, Mayfield found Johnson short right for the score, +4.33 EPA and 33-6. Godwin caught 4 of 5 for 27. Mayfield threw twice after halftime.

The pass defense Smashed, and total EPA allowed shows how far below its standard it held Carolina: 36 pass plays worth -18.0, -0.50 a play against -0.06 allowed through Week 6. On defense a negative number is good. Bryce Young completed 14 of 27 for 163 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, and was sacked five times: three by Yaya Diaby, one by Al-Quadin Muhammad and one by Vita Vea. Diaby's two on the first series of the second half, for 9 and 11 yards, left fourth and 30. Zyon McCollum intercepted Young at midfield late in the half and returned it 18 yards to set up Johnson's touchdown, and Tykee Smith's interception in the third led to Chase McLaughlin's 44-yard field goal. The leak was Darren Waller's 50-yard touchdown down the middle on second and 5.

The run defense came in under its own standard, and EPA per play allowed measures the gap: Carolina's 18 rush plays were worth +0.20 a play, against -0.13 allowed through Week 6; here a positive number is bad. They gained 88 yards, and 44.4% succeeded. Chuba Hubbard ran 7 times for 33, and his 30-yard run in the second quarter came back on a holding penalty. Most of the rest came with the game decided: Carolina's 12 rush plays after halftime were worth +2.7 EPA, including Kenny Pickett's 15-yard scramble on third and 12 and Anthony Tyus III's 12-yard touchdown.

The game turned on one second-quarter snap. Up 10-0, after Ko Kieft recovered a muffed punt at the Carolina 18 and McLaughlin kicked from 22, Tampa Bay faced third and 14 at the Carolina 40. Muhammad sacked Young and forced the fumble, and Kancey picked it up and ran 32 yards for the touchdown: 10.9 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game, and 17-0. When Waller scored, Smith blocked the extra point and McCollum recovered it for two points, 19-6. The offense converted 7 of 12 third downs and scored 3 touchdowns on 17 red-zone snaps; its trip after the muffed punt stalled at the 4, Tucker losing a yard on second and 3.

Last week's notebook asked whether Jalon Daniels' throws would get back toward his early-season accuracy, and whether play-action would return. Daniels only knelt twice at the end; Mayfield took the throws, and play-action waits for the charting. The one to watch next: whether a passing game at -0.25 a play through Week 6 holds anything like +0.48 when Mayfield throws more than 11 times, and whether a run game that succeeded on 55.3% of its plays here keeps that rate.

That's your Buccaneers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Buccaneers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._