Seahawks 20, Chiefs 3 — Week 7: 11 of 16 on Third Down

Seattle beat Kansas City 20-3 at Lumen Field on Sunday night to go 4-3, and the Chiefs, who came in 5-1, never ran a play inside the Seattle 20. The Seahawks led 10-0 at halftime and 13-0 after Jason Myers's second field goal, and Emanuel Wilson's 21-yard touchdown run with 3:52 left made it 20-3. Eight drives produced two touchdowns, two field goals, an interception and one three-and-out, and the offense converted 11 of 16 third downs.

The passing game Smashed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures by how much. Its 28 pass plays were worth +12.2 EPA, +0.43 a play against +0.003 through Week 6, and 53.6% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Sam Darnold completed 20 of 28 for 257 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and was not sacked. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 9 of 12 targets for 150 yards, and four of the catches converted third downs. The biggest came up 3-0 with 11:19 left in the half: third and 7 just short of midfield, Darnold threw short over the middle and Smith-Njigba carried it 33 yards to the Kansas City 20, +3.29 EPA and 11.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, more than any other Seattle snap. The touchdown came with 1:49 left in the half, third and 9 at the Kansas City 28: Darnold went deep left, Smith-Njigba was ruled out of bounds at the 1, and the review gave him the score, +4.64 EPA and 10-0.

The run game had its best night against its own standard, and EPA per play shows it: 41 rush plays, scrambles included, were worth -1.4 EPA, -0.03 a play against -0.19 through Week 6, for 153 yards and a touchdown. Only 41.5% succeeded. Wilson carried a season-high 24 times for 100 yards, and 22 of the carries gained 6 or fewer. Darnold's two scrambles, 7 yards on third and 6 and 10 on third and 9, both moved the chains, and AJ Barner took direct snaps on two third and 1s and a fourth and 1 and converted all three.

The pass defense beat its standard, and third down is where: Kansas City converted 3 of 11. Its 34 pass plays were worth -6.0 EPA, -0.18 a play against -0.14 allowed through Week 6; on defense a negative number is good. Patrick Mahomes completed 19 of 33 for 165 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. Derick Hall sacked him once, on third and 7 at the Seattle 30 late in the third, and Seattle hit him seven times by the play-by-play's count. Travis Kelce caught 4 of 8 targets for 44 yards, none of them before halftime.

The run defense gave up value on few snaps, and success rate is the fairer read: 4 of Kansas City's 16 rush plays succeeded, 25%, for 50 yards. They were worth +0.8 EPA, +0.05 a play against -0.14 allowed through Week 6; here a positive number is the bad direction. Kenneth Walker III ran 14 times for 36 yards. The one that hurt was his 3 yards up the middle on fourth and 1 at the Seattle 49 in the second quarter, +2.21 EPA.

The game turned two snaps later. Down 3-0 with 6:09 left in the half, second and 10 at the Seattle 46, Mahomes threw short left for Jalen Royals, Nick Emmanwori hit him on the throw, and Ty Okada intercepted at the 34: -3.78 EPA and 13.7 points of win probability for Kansas City, the largest swing of the game. Seattle went 66 yards in 10 plays for the touchdown. It gave one back at the other goal line: up 10-0 with 23 seconds left, second and 3 at the Kansas City 3, Darnold threw for Rashid Shaheed and Nohl Williams intercepted in the end zone and returned it 65 yards, -5.61 EPA. Harrison Butker's 58-yard try fell short. Down 13-3 with 8:38 left, Butker missed again from 45, wide right, and Seattle answered with the 9-play drive that ended in Wilson's run off left tackle on third and 4.

Last week's notebook asked whether Darnold's catchable rate would come back, and whether a run game at -0.02 a play against Denver would keep the offense ahead of the chains. The catchable rate waits for the charting. The run game held: -0.03 a play here, and 11 of 16 third downs converted. The one to watch next is the red zone. Seattle ran 9 snaps inside the Kansas City 20 and scored no touchdowns: a 15-play, 8:26 drive from its own 7 ended in a 25-yard field goal, a 13-play drive in the third reached the 6 before Velus Jones Jr. lost 6, and the last drive of the half ended in the interception at the 3. Darnold has now thrown an interception in each of his five games since Week 3.

That's your Seahawks, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Seahawks on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._