Aaron Jones — Week 1: Three Yards for the First Lead
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 14
Jones carried twelve times for forty yards and the three-yard touchdown around left end with six forty-two left that gave Minnesota its first lead, converted the only third-down carry either Vikings back took, and was thrown to once, incomplete. Jordan Mason carried fifteen times, in a 39–22 win over the Packers.
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Six 42 left in the fourth quarter, first and goal at the Green Bay three, Minnesota down 22 to 17. Aaron Jones went around left end for three yards and a touchdown, and after the two-point conversion the Vikings led 25 to 22, their first lead of the day. The run was worth +0.9 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 9.9 points of win probability, the chance of winning after the play against before it; by win probability only Jordan Mason's 28-yarder three plays earlier and Justin Jefferson's 39-yard touchdown in the second quarter gained Minnesota more.
The line: 12 carries, 40 yards, one touchdown, three first downs, five of the 12 successful, −1.0 expected points on the carries, longest eight. Six carries before halftime for 23 yards, six after for 17. The first snap of the Vikings' season was his, first and 10 at the Minnesota 35, up the middle for −1, and Kyler Murray's interception followed on the next play. The eight-yarder was up the middle on first and 10 from the Green Bay 37 with four 32 left in the first, down nine to nothing, on the drive that ended in a field goal. The other carry that mattered was a yard: third and one at the Green Bay 19, three 42 left in the third, down 22 to 10, left guard, first down, +0.5, and T.J. Hockenson caught the 16-yard touchdown three plays later. That was the only third- or fourth-down carry a Vikings running back took all day. His one target was second and nine at the Green Bay 49 with 11 26 left in the second quarter, Carson Wentz short middle, incomplete.
The split: Mason 15 carries, Jones 12, Wentz two, Murray two, both scrambles. Minnesota ran 15 designed runs before halftime and 13 after, and threw 17 pass plays and 10; a hundred 10 rushing yards against a hundred 51 passing. Mason had the one-yard touchdown from the one, Jones the three-yarder from the three, and the backs were thrown to once each, Jones and DeeJay Dallas.
Back in June the preview made no call on Jones: the fortieth running back at pick one 20, a year-10 back whose aging-curve math landed exactly on his price, kept at a 40-percent pay cut with the passing-down role as the thing that gives him a floor and his early touch count as the thing that announces a phase-out. Sunday was 12 carries, one incomplete target, 12 touches, three fewer carries than Mason and the go-ahead touchdown. One game does not settle a year-10 question, and 12 touches with the go-ahead score is not the play sheet of a phase-out either. Minnesota is at the Bears on Sunday the twentieth.
_Data via nflverse._
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