Cade Otton — Week 3: Thirty-Seven Yards on Third and Two
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 28
Otton caught 3 of 6 targets for 56 yards and two first downs, including a 37-yarder on third and two from the Minnesota 44 to the 7 in the second quarter; two holding calls later that drive ended in a field goal. His plus 3.5 expected points on targets led the Buccaneers, and five of his six targets came before halftime, in a 23–16 loss to the Vikings.
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10 to seven, Vikings, eight 42 left in the second quarter, third and two at the Minnesota 44. Baker Mayfield threw short right to Cade Otton, 12 yards in the air, and Otton took it 37 yards to the Minnesota seven. +3.0 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 7.4 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. First and goal at the seven, and it went backwards: a Bucky Irving run to the three and an Irving catch both came back on holding, and Tampa Bay settled for a 28-yard field goal that tied it at 10.
The line: six targets, three catches, 56 yards, two first downs, +3.5 expected points on the targets, the most among the nine Buccaneers thrown to. The first catch was 14 yards on second and 10 from his own 20 on Tampa Bay's second possession, a first down on the drive that ended in Ted Hurst's 40-yard touchdown. The third was five yards on first and 10 from his own 14 in the third quarter. The misses all came in the last two minutes of the half, down 17 to 10: back-to-back incompletions on first and second down from his own 26, short middle and then deep middle, and a deep right throw from his own 23 with 56 seconds left. Five targets before halftime, one after. One third-down target, converted.
Six targets were second on the team behind Emeka Egbuka's nine, and 56 yards were second to Egbuka's 62. None of the six came inside the Minnesota 20.
Back in June the preview made no call on Otton: 81 targets and one touchdown last season, and red-zone targets as the thing to watch in September. Week 1 was five targets for 26 yards; Week 2 six for 38, none inside the 20. Sunday his biggest catch ended at the seven, and the snaps inside the 20 that followed did not go to him. Three games: 17 targets, 11 catches, a hundred 20 yards, no touchdown. The volume the preview called sticky is holding, second on the team to Egbuka's 20. The red-zone half is still empty. Tampa Bay is home to the Packers on Sunday the fourth.
_Data via nflverse._
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