Jalen Nailor — Week 1: Five Targets, One Ended in a Pick
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 14
Nailor was thrown to five times Sunday, third on the Raiders behind Michael Mayer's seven and Ashton Jeanty's six, and caught three for twenty-seven yards, all three first downs. The fifth target was intercepted deep middle in the fourth quarter, and his five targets came out at minus one point six expected points, in a 27–13 win over the Dolphins.
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Jalen Nailor's first catch as a Raider kept the team's first drive alive. Third and six at the Las Vegas 22, eight 57 left in the first quarter, no score: Kirk Cousins short left, eight yards to the 30, first down. The play was worth +2.0 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and +4.0 points of win probability, the chance of winning after the play against before it, and among the Raiders' passes and runs that day only Jack Bech's touchdown, a taunting penalty and a fourth-and-one conversion swung the game further in their favor. The drive had started at the Las Vegas seven, and it ended in the end zone, 15 yards short middle to Bech on third and four with one 38 left in the quarter.
The line: five targets, three catches, 27 yards, no touchdowns, three first downs, and −1.6 expected points on the targets. The three catches were all first downs: the eight on third and six, seven yards short right on second and four at the Miami 22 with two minutes left in the half, up 10 to three, and 12 yards short right on second and six at the Miami 36 with six 55 left in the third, up 24 to 13. Two catches for 15 yards before halftime, one for 12 after. The two incompletions were the second half's other targets, both deep: second and 10 at the Las Vegas 31 on the first play of the fourth quarter, deep right, incomplete, and second and 14 at the Las Vegas 41 with 11 32 left, up 27 to 13, deep middle, intercepted by Dante Trader Jr. at the Miami 42 and returned 14 yards to the Las Vegas 44. That throw was worth −4.7 expected points, and it is why five targets that produced three first downs came out below zero.
The ball went seven times to Michael Mayer, six to Jeanty, five to Nailor, four each to Tre Tucker and Bech, two to Malik Benson, one to Cody White, and one throw carries no receiver, with Brock Bowers inactive, per Ezekiel Trezevant at Raiders On SI, ruled out with a knee injury on the team's injury report at Raiders.com. Among the wide receivers that is Nailor five, Tucker four, Bech four, Benson two, White one. Las Vegas threw 17 times before halftime and 13 after.
Back in June the preview called Nailor a watchlist — receiver 60 at pick one 56, a market paying a full tier above a résumé of 444 yards as Minnesota's fourth target, on the strength of 23 million guaranteed and a quarterback who asked for him — and said the number that would move the price was five-plus targets a game. Sunday was five, three first downs, and an interception on the fifth. One game does not make a target share; this one landed on the preview's line exactly. Las Vegas is at the Chargers on Sunday the twentieth.
_Data via nflverse._
When Jalen Nailor's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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