Kirk Cousins — Week 6: 313 Yards, Two Fourth-Quarter TDs

Kirk Cousins ran the Raiders' passing game well above his own pace against the Bills and still lost 33-30 at home. He completed 23 of 41 passes for 313 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, was not sacked, and was worth +11.5 expected points added (EPA) on 41 dropbacks, +0.28 per dropback. EPA is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position.

The throw that mattered came down 23-16 with 8:13 left. Third and 8 at the Buffalo 11: a short pass to the right found Tre Tucker for an 11-yard touchdown, +3.2 EPA and +21.1 points of win probability, and the game was tied at 23. Three snaps earlier he had hit Brock Bowers deep left for 29 yards to the 13.

The one that cost him came with the Bills up 16-13 and 9:00 left in the third quarter. Second and 12 at his own 29, a short pass over the middle for Michael Mayer was intercepted by Dorian Williams at the Las Vegas 32: -5.0 EPA and -9.9 points of win probability. Buffalo turned it into a touchdown and a 23-13 lead. Down 33-23 with 1:39 left, he found Tucker deep over the middle for a 44-yard touchdown that set the final margin.

The efficiency was up and the accuracy was down. Through Week 5 he had +28.7 EPA on 183 dropbacks, +0.16 per dropback, with 12 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was -9.7 here, against +1.4 over that stretch. The 41 attempts were his most since 52 in Week 4.

Follow Kirk Cousins on Muffed, and every episode lands in your weekly email.

_Data via nflverse._