Mike Gesicki — Week 3: Fourth and Two for the Lead
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 28
Gesicki caught all 3 of his targets for 37 yards, and the middle one was the biggest gain in win probability on any offensive play in the game: 25 yards deep middle on fourth and two from the Pittsburgh 25 with 13:33 left, a touchdown that put Cincinnati ahead 27–24. He was hurt on his first catch in the second quarter and returned, in a 30–27 loss to the Steelers.
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24 to 20, Steelers, 13 33 left in the fourth quarter, fourth and two at the Pittsburgh 25, out of a Cincinnati timeout. Joe Burrow threw deep middle to Mike Gesicki, 24 yards in the air, and Gesicki scored. +4.9 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — the most on any pass or run by either team, and 19.5 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it, the largest gain on any offensive play in the game. The extra point made it 27 to 24. The snap before, Samaje Perine had been stopped for no gain on third and two.
The line: three targets, three catches, 37 yards, one touchdown, +5.1 expected points on the three. 32 air yards, five after the catch. The first catch was six yards on second and 10 at the Pittsburgh 38 in the second quarter, and he was hurt on the play; the play-by-play has him back later in the quarter. That drive ended in a 50-yard field goal. The third catch was six yards on second and 14 from the Cincinnati 43 with a minute 25 left, down three, on the final drive; two snaps later Burrow was sacked and fumbled. The touchdown was his only first down.
Three targets of Burrow's 37. Ja'Marr Chase had 12, Tee Higgins seven, Dohnte Meyers five; Samaje Perine matched Gesicki's three, and Tanner Hudson and Drew Sample had two each.
Back in June the preview called Gesicki a back-end tight end in an offense that funnels everything to Chase and Higgins, a tertiary option at about three and a half targets a game. Week 1 turned that over: seven targets, the team lead, 78 yards and a touchdown. Week 2 was the preview's sentence at full strength: active, per the team's site, and not thrown to. Sunday was three targets and the go-ahead touchdown. Three games: 10 targets, eight catches, a hundred 15 yards, two touchdowns. 10 in three games is close to the preview's rate, reached by way of seven, none and three, and three games settle little about which of those is the role. Cincinnati is home to the Jaguars on Sunday the fourth.
_Data via nflverse._
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