T.J. Hockenson — Week 2: Nineteen Yards to Set Up the Kick

Six to three, Vikings, three 15 left in the fourth quarter, second and 10 at the Minnesota 37. Carson Wentz threw short right to T.J. Hockenson, 19 yards to the Chicago 44. +1.7 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 7.3 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it, second among Vikings pass or run plays to Justin Jefferson's 30-yard catch on the second snap of the game. Chicago spent all three of its timeouts inside the next 13 seconds of game clock. Aaron Jones ran it to the 24, and on third and 10 at the two-minute warning Hockenson caught three more, short right to the 21. Will Reichard kicked the 39-yard field goal with a minute 12 left.

The line: four targets, three catches, 29 yards, two first downs, +3.3 expected points on his targets, the most of any Vikings receiver. 32 air yards. The first catch was seven yards on third and four at the Chicago 28 with 12 51 left in the first quarter, no score, converted, on the drive to the opening field goal. The incompletion was short left on first and 10 from the Minnesota 36 with 14 oh three left in the second. Then the 19 and the three. Two third-down targets, both caught, one converted. Two targets before halftime, two after.

Four targets were third on the team, behind six to Jefferson and five to Jordan Addison. Josh Oliver had one target and turned it into 24 yards, so the tight ends had five of Wentz's 20 throws and 53 of the hundred 43 yards. Four targets on 23 pass plays is about 17 percent.

Back in June the preview called Hockenson a watchlist: the 20-second tight end off the board, two seasons since the knee injury well short of the player who caught 95 passes before it, the stickiest volume profile at the position, and his September target share against a 15.6-percent baseline, along with which quarterback won the job, as the things to watch. Week 1 was five targets on 27 pass plays, about 19 percent, with a touchdown on third and eight. This week was about 17. Both sit above the baseline, and both came from Wentz, with Kyler Murray ruled out this week, per CBS Sports. 50 pass plays across two games is a thin base for a share, and the two numbers at least agree with each other. Minnesota is at the Buccaneers on Sunday the 20-seventh.

_Data via nflverse._