T.J. Hockenson — Week 4: Thirteen Targets, Thirteen Catches

15 to 10, Vikings, two oh seven left against the Dolphins, third and five at the Miami 10, and Miami had just used its last timeout. Kyler Murray threw short left to T.J. Hockenson, and Hockenson carried it to the Miami two. First down, and Murray knelt three times to end the game. +2.5 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — the most of any Minnesota pass or run all day. Three snaps earlier, on second and seven at the Miami 37, Hockenson had caught a 22-yarder deep right to the 15, worth 5.4 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it.

The line: 13 targets, 13 catches, a hundred 19 yards, no touchdown, eight first downs, +11.2 expected points on the targets, 83 air yards and 36 after the catch. Five third-down targets, five catches, five conversions: four yards on third and three just before halftime to set up a field goal, four on third and three early in the third, six on third and two early in the fourth, 14 on third and six at midfield with 12 21 left, up 12 to 10, worth 7.4 points of win probability, and the eight at the end. Three targets before halftime, 10 after.

13 of the 33 Minnesota throws with a receiver went to him, 39 percent. Aaron Jones had eight and Jordan Addison six; no one else had more than two.

Back in June the preview called Hockenson a watchlist: two seasons since the knee well short of the player he had been, the stickiest volume profile at the position, and his September share against a 15.6-percent baseline as the thing to watch. Through three weeks he had 19 percent of the targets, and his yards had fallen each week, 36, 29, 11. Four games: 26 targets, 22 catches, a hundred 95 yards, one touchdown, and 26 percent of the targets. The share has been over the baseline all month; Sunday put yards on it.

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_Data via nflverse._