Tony Pollard — Week 8: 117 Yards, Two TDs and a Safety

Tony Pollard ran 21 times for 117 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals and caught 3 of 5 targets for 20 more. His carries were worth +0.7 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, or +0.03 a carry, and 7 of the 21 succeeded, 33.3%, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Two runs carried the day.

The first came up 3-0 in the first quarter, second and 4 at the Cincinnati 40: he went through the right side for a 40-yard touchdown, +3.9 EPA and 10.2 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The second came early in the fourth, down 23-21, after his own fumble on the previous play was recovered by Chimere Dike: 22 yards around left end to the Cincinnati 11, +1.4 EPA, and Dike caught the touchdown on the next snap. His 1-yard touchdown in the third, after a pass-interference penalty put Tennessee at the 1, tied it 21-21 with the two-point try.

The carry that cost came tied 21-21 with 50 seconds left in the third, second and 12 from his own 3 after a false start: Demetrius Knight Jr. and Dexter Lawrence tackled him in the end zone for a safety, 12.1 points of win probability. Aside from the two long runs, his other 19 carries came to -4.6 EPA.

The per-carry figure beat his season. Through Week 7 he had 112 carries for 478 yards and 4 touchdowns, -8.9 EPA, -0.08 a carry, with a 42.9% success rate. The 117 yards were his second-most this season, behind 129 against the Browns, and he has 6 rushing touchdowns.

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_Data via nflverse._