Tyler Shough — Week 1: From Twenty-One Down to One Throw Short
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 14
Shough threw four hundred ten yards on fifty-seven throws, three touchdowns and two interceptions, and brought the Saints back from twenty-one to nothing in the third quarter to a tie at the end of regulation. After Detroit scored in overtime he took New Orleans eighty yards in ten snaps, hit Noah Fant for the touchdown with a minute thirty-eight left, and threw incomplete on the two-point try that would have won it, in a 31–30 overtime loss to the Lions.
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The last pass Tyler Shough threw Sunday was the two-point conversion from the Detroit two with a minute 34 left in overtime, New Orleans down 31 to 30, and it fell incomplete for Bryce Lance. Seven snaps earlier the Saints had faced fourth and three at their own 27, and Shough went deep right to Chris Olave for 20 yards. That throw was worth +3.3 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — the biggest positive number on New Orleans's 87 snaps. From there the drive went 10 to Fant, 27 deep right to Juwan Johnson to the eight, and an eight-yard touchdown to Fant.
The line: 35 of 57 throws, 410 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, five sacks, and a fumble on one of the sacks that Detroit recovered at the New Orleans 25. Both interceptions were thrown toward Fant. The first came second and six at the Detroit 40 with five 31 left in the half, Saints down seven to nothing, short left, picked by Clark at the 35 — that one cost 11 and a half points of win probability, the chance of winning before and after a play. The second was the first snap after halftime, first and 10 at the New Orleans 40, short middle, picked by Derrick Barnes, −5.7 expected points. 22 throws before halftime produced 85 yards, and the 23 pass plays they sat inside came out at −11 expected points; 35 throws after it produced 325 yards, and the 39 pass plays came out at +10.
The comeback was one throw at a time: 47 yards deep right to Olave from the New Orleans 21, down 21 to nothing with eight 49 left in the third. 31 deep right to Devaughn Vele on third and five in the fourth. Fourth and 12 at his own 23, a minute 55 left, down 24 to 17: 15 yards to Lance. 42 to Olave to the Detroit nine three snaps later, then nine to Johnson for the tie with a minute 13 left. The Saints ran 62 pass plays against 25 runs, and 13 of the 57 throws went to Olave.
Back in June the preview's read on Shough was a no-call: a QB19 price for a rookie who had played 11 games, on a team that had spent the offseason arming him, and the line was that the building believed but belief is not data. Sunday supplied some, and it points two ways — two interceptions and a lost fumble before the game got close, 400 yards and a tie by the end of regulation. One afternoon does not resolve which of those is the quarterback. New Orleans is at the Ravens on Sunday the twentieth. The number to watch is the first-half one.
_Data via nflverse._
When Tyler Shough's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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