Tyler Shough — Week 2: Fourth and One, Twice, for the Win
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 21
Shough completed 27 of 34 throws for 252 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, took three sacks, and scored the winning touchdown on a fourth-and-one sneak from the Baltimore one with 1:32 left, after converting another fourth and one at the Baltimore 44 earlier in the same sixteen-snap drive. He went 12 of 14 for 119 yards in the fourth quarter as the Saints came back from 17–9 down, in a 24–17 win over the Ravens.
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17 all, a minute 32 left, fourth and one at the Baltimore one. On third down Tyler Shough had gone up the middle for nothing. On fourth down he went up the middle again, the ruling was a touchdown, and replay upheld it. +3.4 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 14 and a half points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. It was his second fourth-and-one sneak of the drive: with five 41 left, at the Baltimore 44, no huddle, he had gained exactly one. The drive ran 16 snaps and 68 yards and took six and a half minutes off the clock.
The line: 27 of 34 throws, 252 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, three sacks for 19 yards, and +10.9 expected points on 37 pass plays. 12 of 15 for a hundred two yards before halftime, 15 of 19 for a hundred 50 after. Nearly all of the value came late: in the fourth quarter he was 12 of 14 for a hundred 19 yards, and those 14 throws were worth +10.9 on their own. Third down carried the day. 12 third-down pass plays produced nine completions on 10 throws, seven conversions and two sacks, and three of the conversions were long ones — 29 yards deep middle to Devaughn Vele on third and 13 in the second quarter, 25 to Juwan Johnson on third and 13 to open the third, and 25 more to Johnson on third and eight at the Baltimore 30 with two oh three left, the largest swing in win probability of any play in the game at 18.2 points. Four throws labeled deep, three complete for 70 yards, one of them the 21-yard touchdown to Chris Olave that made the tying two-point try possible.
On the ground the book says nine rushes for 23 yards, which counts a kneel-down and an aborted snap he fumbled and Travis Etienne recovered. The real runs: eight yards on a designed keeper to the Baltimore 12, an 11-yard scramble on third and 14 that set up a 23-yard field goal, a one-yard scramble, a two-yard run before the half, and the three sneaks. 10 throws went to Olave, seven to Vele, six to Alvin Kamara, four to Johnson.
Back in June the preview made no call on Shough: a price around the nineteenth quarterback for a player with 11 games behind him, on a team that had spent its offseason arming him, and one observation that the short-yardage keeper was part of his game. Week 1 was 410 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions on 57 throws, a comeback from 21 down that ended one two-point try short in overtime. Sunday was 34 throws, no interceptions, and a comeback from eight down in the fourth quarter that finished. Two games, two late rallies, and the sneaks the preview mentioned decided this one. It is still two games. New Orleans is home to the Raiders on Sunday the 20-seventh.
_Data via nflverse._
When Tyler Shough's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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