Tyler Shough — Week 7: 30 of 38, One Costly Pick

Tyler Shough had his most efficient game of the season against the Steelers and lost it on one throw: 30 of 38 for 278 yards, a touchdown and an interception, sacked twice, plus 3 carries for 7 yards. Over 41 dropbacks, two sacks and a scramble included, he was worth +11.9 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position: +0.29 per dropback, his best this season, ahead of +0.26 in Week 2. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was +3.3.

The costly throw came down 13-10 with 7:43 left in the third quarter, on a drive that had gone 14 plays from his own 22. Second and 7 at the Pittsburgh 10: he threw short right for Chris Olave, and Payton Wilson intercepted at the 11 and ran it back 18 yards, -6.2 EPA and 20.8 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Pittsburgh kicked a field goal on the next drive for the final margin.

The touchdown came on fourth and goal at the 1 late in the first half, after two runs of his own from the 2 gained a yard and Kendre Miller was stopped at the 1: a short pass to the left to Devaughn Vele for 10-10, +2.5 EPA and 14.9 points of win probability. On that drive he converted fourth and 2 at the Pittsburgh 44 with an 11-yarder to Olave and third and 5 with a 13-yarder to Alvin Kamara. His 49-yard throw deep middle to Barion Brown, on first and 10 from his own 18, set up the field goal. His last drive ended on third and 10 at his own 40, sacked by Patrick Queen for 8.

It was a turn from his first six weeks. Through Week 6 he had -3.1 EPA on 255 dropbacks, -0.01 per dropback, a CPOE of -0.7, 12 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions.

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_Data via nflverse._