Bengals, Week 2 — What Repeats: Bengals Ran Into Loaded Boxes

Last week this show asked whether defenses would keep loading up on Cincinnati now that Tampa Bay had. Houston loaded up, just not where Tampa Bay did. The Texans sent five or more pass rushers on seven of Joe Burrow's 36 dropbacks. That is 19 percent, the fourth-lowest rate any offense saw of the 32 teams this week, and almost exactly the 20 percent this offense saw across all of last season. After Tampa Bay sent five or more on nearly half of Burrow's dropbacks in Week 1, Houston went back to rushing four. The loading happened in the box instead. On Cincinnati's 22 designed runs, Houston showed six or fewer defenders in the box four times.

That is 18 percent, the fourth-lowest light-box rate of the 32 offenses this week, against a median of 44. Last season this offense ran into a light box on 67 percent of its designed runs, two of every three. Last week it was 44 percent. This week, 18, with the average box at a little over seven defenders against 6.4 a year ago. It is one of three charting figures on this team that have moved away from last season two weeks running, and it moved a long way. What the runs did against it is the more interesting half. 22 designed runs gained 86 yards, 3.9 a run, seventeenth of the 32 and dead on the league median. Against boxes that heavy, that is a median day, not a bad one.

The offense around Burrow changed shape in a way the Recap could not see. Cincinnati used motion on 17 of its 81 charted plays. 21 percent, the lowest rate of the 32 teams this week, where the median was 50. Last season it was 42 percent, and last week 39, already 20-sixth in the league. So motion is down both weeks, and this week it nearly halved. Screens went the other way: six of 36 dropbacks, 17 percent, fourth-highest of the 32, after seven percent last season and eight last week. Play-action sat near its own normal, six of 36 dropbacks, 17 percent against 16 a year ago, 20-sixth in the league this week. Burrow's six play-action throws went four for 28 yards. His other 25 went 16 for a hundred 79. And he left the pocket on two of 36 dropbacks, six percent, third-lowest of the 32, where last season, scrambles included, he was out of the pocket on about 16 percent. If you are watching Sunday, look for a Cincinnati offense that barely moves anyone before the snap, a quarterback who stays in the pocket, and more screens than you are used to seeing from this team.

The ball charting on Burrow is clean, and one part of it has now held for two weeks. Four of his 31 throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together. 13 percent, tied for fourteenth of the 32 this week. Last week it was 14 percent. Across his 261 charted throws last season it was 25. Two games in, he is throwing into about half the traffic he threw into a year ago. Charters marked 23 of the 31 catchable, 74 percent, tied for eleventh with Buffalo, Denver and Indianapolis, a little under his 79 last season. None were charted interception-worthy, one of 12 offenses with zero, after four on those 261 throws last season. His receivers dropped two of the 23 catchable balls, nine percent, tied with Buffalo for eighth-highest, against five percent for this team last season. No throwaways. The Recap counted five sacks. The charting puts one of them on Burrow.

Now the defense, which is where the charting got more extreme, not less. Cincinnati sent five or more rushers on six of Houston's 61 dropbacks. 10 percent, the lowest rate of any of the 32 defenses this week, with the median at 33. Last week it was 14 percent, tied for 20-eighth. Last season, 18. 4.1 rushers per dropback on average. That is another figure that has repeated: a four-man rush, both weeks, further from last season each time. And this week the throws behind it looked nothing like last week's. 16 of Houston's 56 throws were contested, 29 percent, the fourth-highest share any defense produced of the 32. Last season this defense was contested on 13 percent, and last week on seven. Charters marked 32 of the 56 catchable, 57 percent, second-lowest in the league this week, with only the Rams' defense lower. Last week it was 86 percent, third-highest. One throw was charted interception-worthy, and C.J. Stroud threw four away. The Recap counted four sacks, all in the fourth quarter. Last week the charting put all four of Cincinnati's sacks on Baker Mayfield. This week it puts none of the four on Stroud.

Against the run, the defense held Houston down without stacking the box. Houston ran 15 designed runs for 31 yards, 2.1 a run, the second-lowest figure allowed of the 32 defenses this week, with only Tampa Bay's lower. Cincinnati showed six or fewer in the box on eight of those 15, 53 percent, tenth-highest in the league this week, after 63 percent last season and 47 last week. Last season designed runs against this defense gained 2212 yards on 425 tries, better than five a run. Houston also barely bothered with play-action, nine of 61 dropbacks, 15 percent, where offenses facing Cincinnati last season used it on 27.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Ja'Marr Chase led everyone with 23: seven catches on nine targets for 75 yards and both touchdowns, a week after two catches for 12. Burrow, 16.2, 20 of 31 for 207 two scores. Tee Higgins caught five of 10 targets for 95, 12 points. Chase Brown ran 20 times for 80 and caught three of five for two yards, 9.7. For Houston, Dalton Schultz caught 12 of 14 targets for a hundred 40, 20 points, and Stroud went 30 of 55 for 353 with three carries for 29, 17. No Houston running back reached 10 half-PPR points.

A word on the comparisons, because they carry a condition through Week 3. Every "last season" above is a different Bengals team, with new players in some spots and the rest a year older. Measured against it, a figure tells you something is unusual. It cannot yet tell you it is true. Week 1 is last week, one game, not a season rate. Around Week 4 this show starts measuring Cincinnati against its own run of 2026 games, which is the comparison the name promises.

So, what repeats. Two games settle nothing, but two games in the same direction is the first thing worth writing down. Three figures have moved away from last season both weeks: the four-man rush on defense, the heavy boxes the run game is seeing, and motion falling off. Burrow's contested rate is about half of last season's both weeks. Two figures reversed completely. Five-or-more rushers against Burrow went from nearly half his dropbacks to one in five. And the defense went from the third-highest catchable rate allowed in the league to the second-lowest.

The thread, for anyone joining now. Cincinnati went six and 11 last season, and the defense was the reason, 20-eighth against the pass and 20-ninth against the run by the Recap's measure. This season it beat Tampa Bay 33 to 27 at home, then won 20 to six in Houston. Last week's notebook had two lines. Whether defenses keep loading up on Burrow: Houston did, in the box and not in the rush. Whether a rush that rarely sends more than four keeps producing sacks: it produced four again, and this time the charting gives the quarterback none of the blame. New line: an offense moving less before the snap than anyone in the league this week. Two and oh, and the defense is doing it with four rushers.

That's your Bengals — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bengals show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._