Bengals 43, Titans 36 — Week 8: Four Turnovers, Still a Win

Cincinnati beat Tennessee 43-36 in overtime at home on Sunday and is 5-2, winning a game in which it lost four turnovers and Tennessee lost two. The Bengals trailed 13-0 in the first quarter, led 14-13 at halftime, and were down 36-29 with 3:46 left. 14 drives produced six touchdowns, no field goals, three interceptions, a lost fumble, a turnover on downs and two three-and-outs.

The passing game Smashed between the interceptions, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, says by how much: 51 pass plays worth +18.0, +0.35 a play against +0.20 through Week 7. Of those, 66.7% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Joe Burrow completed 38 of 48 for 462 yards and five touchdowns, threw three interceptions and was sacked three times, all by Jacob Martin. Tee Higgins caught 10 of 11 targets for 155 yards and two scores, Ja'Marr Chase 11 of 16 for 141 and one. Down 13-0 early in the second quarter, a 20-yard touchdown to Chase Brown was wiped out by holding, leaving third and 18 at the Tennessee 30; Burrow threw deep middle to Chase for the score anyway, +4.7 EPA and 12.3 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The leak was one direction. Nine throws went deep to the right: five were caught, two for touchdowns, and Amani Hooker intercepted three; the nine came to -2.0 EPA.

The run game was Muffed, and success rate opens the case: 7 of 19 rush plays succeeded, 36.8%. They were worth -6.5 EPA, -0.34 a play against -0.05 through Week 7, the worst of any game this season, for 75 yards and a touchdown. One play carried most of it. Up 23-21 on the first drive of the fourth, second and 1 at the Cincinnati 49, Alontae Taylor knocked the ball from Brown and Kevin Winston Jr. recovered: -5.5 EPA and 26.8 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. The other 18 rush plays came to -1.0. Brown ran 12 times for 55 yards; Burrow's 9-yard scramble won it.

The pass defense gave up more than its standard, and success rate allowed shows how steadily: 22 of Tennessee's 42 pass plays succeeded, 52.4%. They were worth +3.9 EPA, +0.09 a play against -0.03 allowed through Week 7; on defense a positive number is bad. Cam Ward completed 26 of 40 for 304 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Both takeaways were fumbles: DJ Turner II stripped Wan'Dale Robinson at the Cincinnati 39 in the second quarter, and Josh Newton recovered, -4.4 EPA for Tennessee. Up 14-13 early in the third, Boye Mafe sacked Ward and forced a fumble that Dexter Lawrence recovered and carried to the Tennessee 17, -6.3 EPA, and Higgins scored on the next snap.

The run defense slipped well below its standard, and EPA per play allowed measures it: Tennessee's 28 rush plays were worth +0.19 a play, against -0.06 allowed through Week 7. Here, too, positive is bad. They gained 158 yards and scored twice. Tony Pollard ran 21 times for 117 yards, 40 of them on a touchdown on second and 4 in the first quarter, +3.9 EPA. Only 12 of the 28 succeeded, 42.9%, and one of the failures paid: tied 21-21 late in the third, Demetrius Knight Jr. and Lawrence tackled Pollard in the end zone for a safety.

The game turned on the last 3:46 of regulation. Down 36-29, after a holding penalty on the kickoff, Burrow went 81 yards in seven plays from his own 19: Dohnte Meyers for 18, Chase for 17, Higgins for 16 on third and 5, then deep right to Higgins for 18 and the touchdown with 1:20 left, +2.5 EPA and 15.4 points of win probability. The extra point tied it. Tennessee reached the Cincinnati 45, and on third and 3 with 32 seconds left Lawrence sacked Ward for 13 yards, a 13.6-point swing in win probability, and Tennessee punted. In overtime Burrow went 70 yards in five plays, Higgins catching a 21-yarder on second and 1, and scrambled in from the 9. The defense then stopped a fourth and 3 at the Tennessee 35. The offense converted 7 of 10 third downs.

Last week's notebook asked whether the passing game would start the way it finished in Baltimore and whether the run game would start adding to it. The start came: 22 first-half pass plays were worth +0.26 a play, after -0.33 before halftime a week earlier. The run game went the other way, -0.34 a play. The one to watch next: whether a passing game at +0.35 a play stops handing the ball back, after three interceptions here matched Burrow's total from his first six games.

That's your Bengals, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bengals on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._