Bengals 34, Falcons 17 — Week 9: Chase for 155, Burrow 24 of 29

Cincinnati won 34-17 over Atlanta in Madrid on Sunday, its fourth straight win, and went to 6-2. The Bengals trailed 10-7 after a quarter, then scored on each of their first four drives, three touchdowns and Evan McPherson's 57-yard field goal, to lead 24-10 at halftime. Nine drives produced four touchdowns, two field goals and two three-and-outs. The offense did not turn the ball over, and the defense took it away once.

The passing game Smashed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures it: 31 pass plays worth +16.3, +0.53 a play against +0.23 through Week 8. 58.1% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Joe Burrow completed 24 of 29 for 271 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, a completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, of +16.5. Ja'Marr Chase caught 10 of 12 targets for 155 yards. Down 7-0 midway through the first quarter, third and 2 at the Atlanta 47, Burrow went deep right and Chase caught it for a 47-yard touchdown: +4.9 EPA and 13.3 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. Tee Higgins caught touchdowns from 4 and 8 yards. Nearly all of the value came before halftime: 22 pass plays worth +17.5, then 9 worth -1.2.

The run game added to it, and success rate shows it doing its job: 11 of 23 rush plays, 47.8%, succeeded, for 124 yards. EPA had them at +2.7, +0.12 a play against -0.09 through Week 8. Chase Brown ran 9 times for 57 yards, and Samaje Perine 11 times for 43, seven of those carries in the fourth quarter. Up 24-17 in the third, Brown went up the middle for 19 yards to the Atlanta 8, and Higgins scored on the next snap.

The pass defense held a little better than its standard, and EPA per play allowed shows it: Atlanta's 31 pass plays were worth -0.06 a play against -0.01 allowed through Week 8. On defense a negative number is good. Michael Penix Jr. completed 20 of 31 for 162 yards and a touchdown and was never sacked. Up 34-17 with 4:06 left, second and 1 at the Atlanta 40, Barrett Carter intercepted a throw for Bijan Robinson at the 43, -5.5 EPA for Atlanta.

The run defense had its worst game of the season, and total EPA allowed says so: Atlanta's 24 rush plays were worth +8.2, +0.34 a play against -0.02 allowed through Week 8. Here a positive number is bad. Robinson ran 19 times for 100 yards and a touchdown, and Penix scrambled three times for 50. The longest, tied 7-7, went 23 yards on third and 5.

The game turned on the drive after Atlanta's first three-and-out. Up 14-10 early in the second quarter, the Bengals started at their own 12 and went 88 yards in 10 plays and 6:43. Chase opened it with a 31-yard catch, converted third and 1 with an 11-yarder that Atlanta challenged and lost, and converted third and 9 with a 14-yarder. A 9-yard sack at the Atlanta 30 came off for a defensive holding penalty, Chase caught a 12-yarder to the 4, and Higgins scored on the next play. Cincinnati's win probability went from 63.2% at the start of the drive to 80.3% at its end. With 57 seconds left in the half, Burrow found Dohnte Meyers deep left for 42 yards from his own 17, and McPherson's 57-yarder made it 24-10.

Last week's episode asked whether a passing game at +0.35 a play would stop handing the ball back after three interceptions against Tennessee. It did: no interceptions in 29 throws, and +0.53 a play. The one to watch next: whether a run defense that allowed +0.34 a play here, its worst game of the season, gets back below zero, where it sat at -0.02 through Week 8.

That's your Bengals, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bengals on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._