Glossary

ADP (average draft position)

ADP is the average slot a player is drafted across a large sample of leagues — the market's price. Muffed uses FantasyPros consensus, Half-PPR, 12-team, snapshotted 2026-06-19.

Every draft records where each player went. Averaging those slots gives ADP: a lower number means an earlier pick. It is a measure of consensus opinion, not of expected production.

Updated Jul 26, 2026

Current leaders — 2025

Market vs Reality leaders, 2025
#PlayerADP Pos2025 FinishGapHPPR/GG
1Luther Burden IIIWR · CHI2153+32.07.015
2Justin JeffersonWR · MIN534+29.09.417
3Bhayshul TutenRB · JAX2652+26.05.615
4DeVonta SmithWR · PHI1230+18.09.617
5Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC1129+18.010.417
6DJ MooreWR · BUF2238+16.08.717
7Ladd McConkeyWR · LAC2035+15.09.216
8Emeka EgbukaWR · TB1529+14.09.717
9Lamar JacksonQB · BAL216+14.016.513
10Mike EvansWR · SF2337+14.08.78

See the full market vs reality leaderboard Luther Burden III leads.

Why it matters

ADP is the only number in fantasy that tells you what something costs rather than what it is worth, which makes it the denominator for every value question. A player's positional ADP rank against his actual positional finish is the whole market-versus-reality exercise: across 64 scored players from 2025, Justin Jefferson of the Vikings was drafted WR5 and finished WR34 — the most expensive miss on the board. Prices move all offseason, which is why a snapshot carries a date.

Updated Jul 26, 2026

The counter

ADP reflects a moment in the market, and the market reprices on news the day after the snapshot.

Updated Jul 26, 2026

Hear the story behind the numbers

Muffed builds a weekly podcast around your guys — real football, play by play, from the same verified data as the tables on this page.