Aaron Rodgers — Week 7: No Picks, One 51-Yard Shot

Aaron Rodgers did not give the Saints the ball and hit the throw that set up Pittsburgh's only touchdown: 19 of 30 for 212 yards and a touchdown, no interceptions, three sacks. Over 34 dropbacks, sacks and a scramble included, he was worth +3.5 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, +0.10 per dropback. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was -2.9.

The throw came tied 3-3 with 8:34 left in the second quarter, one snap after a deep incompletion to DK Metcalf. Third and 14 at his own 45: he went deep left to Metcalf for 51 yards to the New Orleans 4, +5.1 EPA and 20.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. Two plays later he hit Darnell Washington short left for a 4-yard touchdown and 10-3. In the third, up 13-10 after Payton Wilson's interception, he converted third and 9 to Pat Freiermuth for 11 and third and 6 to Brandon Smith for 20, and the drive ended in a 39-yard field goal.

He helped close it on his feet. Up 16-10 with 2:49 left, third and 6 at the New Orleans 34, he scrambled 8 yards for a first down, +1.5 EPA and 6.8 points; the Saints never got the ball back, and he knelt twice to finish.

It beat his season so far. Through Week 6 he had -30.6 EPA on 252 dropbacks, -0.12 per dropback, a CPOE of -0.8, 12 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions.

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_Data via nflverse._