AJ Barner — Week 3: Nine Targets, Sixty-Nine Yards
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 28
Barner was thrown to 9 times, second on Seattle, and caught 5 for 69 yards and three first downs, the longest a 32-yarder to the Washington 21 that set up Seattle's first touchdown. He was also the intended receiver on the fourth-and-two incompletion at the Washington 2 before halftime and on the fourth-quarter interception returned for a touchdown, in a 33–31 loss to the Commanders.
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27 to 24, Commanders, four oh nine left in the fourth quarter, second and 15 at the Washington 49. Sam Darnold threw short middle for AJ Barner, and Washington intercepted it at the 50 and returned it 50 yards for the touchdown that made it 33 to 24. −8.7 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and −28.8 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it, the largest swing of the game. The play-by-play records it as a target for Barner and says nothing more about his part in it.
The line: nine targets, five catches, 69 yards, three first downs, −8.4 expected points on the targets, 8.7 of it on the interception; the other eight came out slightly positive. The five catches were thrown a combined zero yards past the line of scrimmage, so all 69 came after the catch. The 32 was second and four at the Seattle 47 with 54 seconds left in the first quarter, down seven, short right to the Washington 21, +2.2; the drive ended in Jaxon Smith-Njigba's one-yard touchdown. 15 on first and 10 from the Washington 20 with two 57 left in the half took the ball to the five. Then five in the third quarter, 12 with 15 seconds left in the third, and five on first and 10 from the 16, the snap before Smith-Njigba's tying touchdown. The misses: the first snap Seattle threw on; second and two at the two before halftime; and fourth and two from the same spot, −3.1 and 7.8 points of win probability, which ended the drive on downs. He was also flagged for a false start in the second quarter.
Nine of Seattle's 46 throws were second to Smith-Njigba's 14. Eric Saubert had two tight-end targets and scored the third-quarter touchdown by recovering his own fumble in the end zone; Elijah Arroyo does not appear in the play-by-play.
Back in June the preview leaned toward Barner, and the bet was the catches: 52 a year ago, second on the champions, about four targets a game, with the seven touchdowns as the part not to count on and the split with Arroyo as the thing that sizes the role. Week 1 was two catches on two targets. Week 2 was one on one, plus a direct-snap touchdown. Sunday was nine targets. Through three games that is 12 targets, eight catches and 90 yards, four targets a game, the line the bet rests on, though nine of the 12 came on one afternoon. Three games settle little. Seattle is home to the Chargers on Sunday the fourth.
_Data via nflverse._
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