Cade Otton — Week 4: Thirteen Yards at the Two-Minute Mark

17 to 14, Packers, two minutes left, first and 10 at the Tampa Bay 41. Jalon Daniels threw short right to Cade Otton, and Otton was pushed out at the Green Bay 46 for 13 yards. +7.7 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it, and +0.8 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position. One snap earlier he had converted third and three for five yards. From there: an incompletion, a sack, five yards on third and 16, and a fourth-and-11 incompletion.

The line: six targets, four catches, 37 yards, three first downs, +1.1 expected points on the targets. The first was Tampa Bay's first completion of the day, 13 yards from its own 14; another was six yards to the Green Bay 19 on the drive Sean Tucker finished. The misses were a second down on a three-and-out and third and one at the Green Bay 45 late in the half.

Six targets were second on the team behind seven to Chris Godwin, ahead of four to Emeka Egbuka. None of the six came inside the Green Bay 20.

Back in June the preview made no call on Otton and named red-zone targets as the thing to watch. Four games: 23 targets, 15 catches, a hundred 57 yards, no touchdown, one target behind Egbuka for the team lead. The volume has held through a change at quarterback. The red-zone half is still empty.

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_Data via nflverse._