Caleb Williams — Week 8: 247 Yards, No Interceptions

Caleb Williams did most of his work before halftime against the Seahawks: 24 of 34 for 247 yards and a touchdown, no interceptions and one sack, in a 34-17 win. Over 36 dropbacks he was worth +5.1 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, +0.14 per dropback. He went 17 of 25 for 165 yards in the first half and 7 of 9 for 82 after it, as Chicago ran the ball 19 times.

The opening drive was his best stretch. He converted three third downs, 12 yards to Colston Loveland on third and 7, +2.2 EPA, 5 to Luther Burden III on third and 4 and 15 to Loveland on third and 1, then threw a 1-yard touchdown to Burden on second and 1. Up 13-9 early in the third, second and 11 at the Seattle 47, he hit Rome Odunze short over the middle for 22 yards to the 25: +2.3 EPA and 7.7 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. D'Andre Swift finished that drive from the 1.

The cost came early in the fourth, up 20-9. Mike Morris sacked him for 10 yards to his own 13, and on third and 20 his short throw to Loveland ended in a fumble that DeMarcus Lawrence forced and recovered at the 25, -2.8 EPA, and Seattle scored a touchdown on the short field.

It was below his season rate. Through Week 7, in four games, he was at +0.32 per dropback, +47.6 EPA on 150 dropbacks, with a completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, of +9.0; here it was +3.0. It was his third straight start without an interception.

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_Data via nflverse._