Cam Ward — Week 7: The Fourth-and-8 Drive

Cam Ward got the passing game to break-even against the Browns and still lost: 20 of 31 for 181 yards, no touchdowns and an interception, sacked once, in a 27-24 loss at home. Over 33 dropbacks, the sack and a scramble included, he was worth +0.3 expected points added (EPA), +0.01 a dropback. EPA is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position. Completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which compares completions with what each throw's difficulty predicts, was +1.6.

The drive that tied it came down 24-17 with 2:33 left. Fourth and 8 at the Cleveland 43: he threw deep middle to Elic Ayomanor for 26 yards to the 17, +4.4 EPA and 17.8 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. On third and 12 at the 19 he went deep left to Carnell Tate for 18 to the 1, +3.2 EPA, and Tony Pollard scored two snaps later.

The throw that cost him came up 14-7 in the second quarter, on the first snap after Tennessee's defense had taken the ball back at the Cleveland 44. First and 10, he went deep right for Ayomanor and Denzel Ward intercepted at the 22: -3.6 EPA and 10.1 points of win probability. On the drive before, at the Cleveland 1, his sneak gained nothing on second down and Adin Huntington sacked him for no gain on third.

It was a long way up from his season. Through Week 6 he had -36.2 EPA on 199 dropbacks, -0.18 a dropback, and a CPOE of -1.3. The 181 yards matched his Week 3 total; his high is 222, in Week 4.

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_Data via nflverse._