Christian McCaffrey — Week 1: Ten Carries, Eight Targets, and Kaelon Black Had Fourteen
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Friday, Sep 11
McCaffrey opened the second half with runs of fourteen and sixteen yards and finished with ten carries for sixty-eight, but Kaelon Black carried fourteen times on a night San Francisco ran thirty. He was the most-targeted 49er with eight, caught five for twenty yards, and two of the three incompletions came on third down. The June preview said the catches were the bet; the first night said the carries were.
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The first two plays of the second half Thursday were Christian McCaffrey behind the right guard for 14 yards and behind the left guard for 16, from the San Francisco 49 to the Los Angeles 21. Five plays later San Francisco led 17 to seven. Those two runs were worth +2.1 expected points added between them — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and they were most of his expected points on the ground: 10 carries, 68 yards, no touchdowns, +2.7 in total, six of the 10 carries successful.
The number to sit with is 14. That is how many times Kaelon Black carried the ball, four more than McCaffrey, on a night San Francisco ran 30 times for a hundred 74 yards. Black had 65 of those yards. This was not a game script that took McCaffrey off the field — the 49ers led from four 35 of the second quarter and ran 18 times after halftime — it was a game in which the carries were shared and Black got the larger share.
The catches were the harder part. McCaffrey was thrown to eight times, more than any other 49er, and caught five for 20 yards. The eight targets came out at −4.9 expected points, and the shape of that number is three third downs: third and two at the San Francisco 25 in the first quarter, incomplete; third and five at the Los Angeles 38 in the fourth, incomplete, and San Francisco kicked a 56-yarder; third and four at the 34 with four 24 left, caught for no gain, and a 52-yard attempt hit the upright. Nothing he caught went longer than eight yards.
Back in June the preview's whole case was in one line — the aging fade is real, he is still the best back in football after you subtract it, and the catches are the bet. One game in Melbourne cannot settle the fade, and it should not be read as if it does. What it can say is that the first night ran the opposite way from the bet: the ground work was efficient and the targets were not, and Black took more of the carries. The question for the next month is whether 14-10 was a plan or a Thursday. San Francisco is home to Miami on Sunday the twentieth.
_Data via nflverse._
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