Christian McCaffrey — Week 3: Fifteen Carries, a Touchdown
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 28
McCaffrey carried 15 times for 75 yards, four first downs and a 1-yard touchdown, ten of the carries after halftime, and caught 4 of 5 targets for 41 yards. His 11-yard catch at the San Francisco 35 with 2:51 left and a 29–27 lead was worth 8.6 points of win probability, in a 36–30 win over the Cardinals.
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29 to 27, 49ers, two 51 left, first and 10 at the San Francisco 35 after a touchback. Brock Purdy threw short left to Christian McCaffrey, 11 yards to the 46. +0.5 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 8.6 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it; among 49ers plays only the 82-yard lateral touchdown moved it more. After an incompletion he went up the middle for 12 to the Arizona 42, then lost three around left end. Purdy's 45-yard scramble came back to the 20 on a holding call, McCaffrey was stopped for no gain on first and 10 there, and George Kittle caught the touchdown on the next snap.
The line: 15 carries, 75 yards, one touchdown, four first downs, eight of the 15 successful, −0.4 expected points on the carries; five targets, four catches, 41 yards, three first downs, +2.4 on the targets. The carries went three, eight, five, two, four, five, three, one, two, 14, 10, nine, 12, −3 and nothing. Five before halftime for 22 yards, 10 after for 53. The touchdown was second and one at the Arizona one with 11 10 left in the third, for 23 to six, set up by his 12-yard catch on first and 10 from the 19 to the seven. The 14 came on third and 18 late in the third, short of the sticks, and San Francisco punted. The 10 and the nine were back-to-back runs on the drive that ended in Kittle's first touchdown. The other catches: 13 on third and seven from the San Francisco 23 in the first quarter, converted, worth 5.6 points of win probability, on the drive that ended in Mike Evans's touchdown; and five in the second quarter. The one incompletion was third and five from the 19. A no-gain carry at the five came back on an illegal formation call.
The split: 21 49ers designed runs, 15 for McCaffrey, four for Kaelon Black, two for Deebo Samuel. Five targets were third on the team behind Kittle's seven and Evans's six.
Back in June the preview's case was one line: the aging fade is real, he clears it, and the catches are the bet. Week 1 was 10 carries and eight targets for 20 yards, with 14 carries for Black. Week 2 was 10 carries, two touchdowns from the one, and the catches the best of his day. Sunday was his most carries of the season, Black's fewest, and the catches again worth more than the runs. Three games: 35 carries for a hundred 66 yards and three touchdowns, 13 catches for a hundred four. Three games settle little. San Francisco is home to the Broncos on Sunday the fourth.
_Data via nflverse._
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