Christian Watson — Week 3: Seven Catches, and a Fourth-and-One

Seven to 17, Falcons, 10 oh two left in the third quarter, fourth and one at the Atlanta seven. Jordan Love threw short right to Christian Watson, incomplete. −9.8 points of win probability — the chance of winning the game after the play against before it — the largest swing on any Packers run or pass play all night, in either direction. One snap earlier, on third and six from the 12, Watson had caught a five-yard throw and been pushed out at the seven, a yard short. Atlanta took over inside its own 10 and drove the length of the field for the touchdown that made it 24 to seven.

The line: 10 targets, seven catches, 96 yards, one touchdown, five first downs — the most of any Packer — and +2.0 expected points on the targets, where expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position. The touchdown was the first score of the game: first and goal at the Atlanta four, five 17 left in the first quarter, short middle. The biggest catch by expected points was 34 yards deep left on third and 10 from the Green Bay 24 with 10 44 left in the fourth, down 27 to seven, +3.4, on the drive that ended in Matthew Golden's touchdown; he added 11 yards to the Atlanta 18 later on the same drive. The 22-yard catch deep middle, first and 10 at midfield on the opening drive of the second half, carried that drive to the Atlanta 28; it died at the seven. The last two, five yards and 15 on third and one, came on the final possession, down 21. The misses: third and four on the opening drive, second and five at the Atlanta 28 in the second quarter, two plays before a blocked field goal, and the fourth down. Three targets before halftime, seven after. Four third-down targets, three caught, two converted, plus the fourth down. He was also flagged for holding in the first quarter, which took a five-yard Kaleb Johnson run off the board — the second week running a Watson hold has erased a running back's carry.

10 targets were second on the team to Golden's 12, ahead of eight to Tucker Kraft and seven to Skyy Moore, 19 percent of Love's 53 throws. The 96 yards were second to Golden's hundred by four, and 70 of them came in the air before the catch. Jayden Reed was inactive with a neck injury, per NBC Sports, so the receiver room behind those two was Moore, Bo Melton and J. Michael Sturdivant.

Back in June the preview made no call on Watson: the 20-ninth receiver off the board, a top-15 per-game rate built on five and a half targets a game and a 27 percent touchdown share, with target volume past six or seven a game as the September watch. Week 1 was eight targets, a hundred 47 yards and two touchdowns. Week 2 was 11 targets and 41 yards, with five third-down targets and none converted. Thursday was 10, seven catches, 96 yards, and a touchdown for the third game in three. Three games in, the volume question the preview asked is answered at nearly 10 a game, and the touchdowns have not stopped yet; the fourth-and-one is the play the night will be remembered for, and it was one target of 29 this season. Green Bay is at the Buccaneers on Sunday the fourth.

_Data via nflverse._