D'Andre Swift — Week 2: Fumble at the One, Then Thirty-Two

Six to three, Vikings, nine 42 left in the third quarter, first and goal at the Minnesota one. D'Andre Swift went off right tackle for no gain and the ball came out, forced by Jalen Redmond and recovered by Isaiah Rodgers at the one. −5.5 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and −20 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. By expected points it was the worst pass or run play either team had all day. It was the eleventh play of a drive that started at the Chicago 35, and the Bears finished the afternoon without a touchdown.

The line on the ground: 16 carries, 45 yards, one fumble lost, three first downs, four of the 16 successful, −8.9 expected points on the carries, five and a half of that on the fumble. The carries went seven, two, one, nothing, two, −2, six, three, three, 12, four, nothing, one, three, two, one. Nine before halftime for 22 yards, seven after for 23. Two third-down carries: one yard on third and one in the first quarter, converted, and three yards on third and six at the Minnesota 36 with four 12 left in the second. On the fourth and three that followed, he caught a three-yard pass for the first down, and Minnesota challenged the spot and lost.

The receiving line was the better one: five targets, five catches, 54 yards, two first downs, +4.6 expected points. Four of the five were caught behind the line of scrimmage; the air yards total −15 and the yards after the catch 69. The big one: 11 42 left in the fourth quarter, third and seven at the Chicago 36, down six to three, Caleb Williams short left, 32 yards to the Minnesota 32. +3.1 expected points and 15.2 points of win probability, the largest gain by any pass or run play for either team, and the longest play of the game. That drive reached the Minnesota five and ended in a blocked field goal.

The split: Swift 16 designed runs, Kyle Monangai 10, Williams two. Monangai out-gained him, 47 to 45. Nine carries to three before halftime, seven to seven after. Inside the Minnesota 10, Swift had the one carry at the one; on the fourth-quarter drive the third and three and the fourth and one went to Monangai. Five targets tied Kalif Raymond for second on the team behind Luther Burden's seven.

Back in June the preview leaned underpriced on Swift: a career year on the ground the market was ignoring, with his passing-game usage and the carry split with Monangai as the September watch. Week 1 was 18 carries for a hundred 24 yards and three touchdowns, 18 carries to 10, and one target. This week the split was 16 to 10, close to the same, and the targets went from one to five, which is the usage the preview asked about. The yards and the ball security went the other way. Two games, one of each kind. Chicago is home to the Eagles on Monday the 20-eighth.

_Data via nflverse._