D'Andre Swift — Week 3: Twenty Carries, Stopped at the One

Seven to nothing, Bears, 14 40 left in the second quarter, second and one at the Philadelphia one, one snap after the replay official had taken away a Colston Loveland touchdown and spotted the ball at the one. D'Andre Swift went behind the right guard and was stopped for −2, back at the three. −1.4 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and −1.4 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. Two incompletions later, Chicago turned it over on downs at the three. It was the second time in three weeks Swift's night had turned at the one; in Week Two it was a fumble there.

The line: 20 carries, 84 yards, no touchdown, two first downs, nine of the 20 successful, −0.8 expected points on the carries; three targets, two catches, four yards. The carries went four, nine, nothing, one, two, six, three, −2, −2, nine, one, three, four, four, nine, nine, five, two, two and 15. Nine carries before halftime for 21 yards; 11 after for 63, and none of the first 19 went longer than nine. The 15 was the last one: fourth and one at the Philadelphia 34 with two minutes left, up 27 to seven, behind the left tackle to the 19, +2.4 expected points, Chicago's longest run of the night and worth almost nothing in win probability with the game decided. Two third-down carries, neither converted: third and one at the Philadelphia 32 on the opening drive, no gain, before Keenum converted the fourth down to Sam Roush; and third and three with two 19 left. Six carries inside the Philadelphia 25 inside the 10, among them four yards to the five and four to the one on the fourth-quarter drive that Case Keenum finished himself from the one. The catches were four yards on third and two in the first quarter, converted, and no gain in the second; the third target, third and 12 in the third quarter, fell incomplete.

The split: Swift 20 designed runs, Kyle Monangai 10, Luther Burden one, Keenum one, plus a Keenum scramble. 13 designed runs before halftime, 19 after, against 21 pass plays and 13. 20 carries were tied for the sixth-most by any back this week.

Back in June the preview called Swift's season a career year built on sustained volume — 223 carries, a thousand 87 yards, nine touchdowns — and said the carries and the receiving role were the parts that tend to hold, with year six as the one caution. Week One was 18 carries and three touchdowns. Week Two was 16 carries and the fumble at the one. Monday was 20 carries, the most of the three, 84 yards, and −2 at the one. Three games: 54 carries, 253 yards, three touchdowns, eight catches for 68. The volume is holding as the preview said it would; his last two carries from the one have ended in a fumble and a loss of two, and Monday's score from the one went to the quarterback. Chicago hosts the Jets on Sunday the fourth.

_Data via nflverse._