D'Andre Swift — Week 4: Two Reversals and a Fumble

Nothing to nothing against the Jets, nine 14 left in the first quarter, fourth and one at the New York one. Two snaps earlier D'Andre Swift had been ruled in from the three, and replay put him at the one. Now he went behind the left guard, was ruled in again, and replay reversed it again: no gain, and the Jets took over at their own one. −3.6 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and −8.4 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it.

The line: 15 carries, 58 yards, no touchdowns, two rushing first downs, −7.4 expected points on the carries; two catches for 16. Both first downs came on short yardage, the 13 on fourth and one setting up Kyle Monangai's touchdown. The biggest cost was one play. Up 13 to three in the third quarter, second and six at the Chicago 28, Swift was stripped and the Jets recovered: −5.2, −9 points of win probability, and a Jets field goal. It was his last carry. Monangai had 18 of Chicago's 23 runs after it.

Back in June the preview called Swift's season a career year built on volume, and said the carries tend to hold. This week's 15 carries were the fewest of his four games, and half of Monangai's. Four games: 69 carries, 311 yards, three touchdowns, 10 catches for 84, two lost fumbles. Over the last three weeks his carries from the one have ended in a fumble, a loss of two and a touchdown taken back by replay.

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_Data via nflverse._