D'Andre Swift — Week 8: Three Touchdowns on 27 Carries

D'Andre Swift scored three times against the Seahawks on his heaviest workload of the season: 27 carries for 69 yards and three touchdowns, worth +1.8 expected points added (EPA), plus 2 catches on 3 targets for 10 yards. EPA is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position. 13 of his 27 carries, 48.1%, were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for.

His most valuable carry came first. On the opening drive, scoreless, fourth and 1 at the Chicago 44, he ran off right tackle for 5 yards: +2.5 EPA and 7.8 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The drive ended in a touchdown. His own scores came after halftime. Up 13-9 in the third, he went in from the 1 for a 20-9 lead after the extra point. Up 20-17 with 8:33 left, one snap after Kalif Raymond's 39-yard run, he went around right end from the 5, +1.4 EPA. After James Lynch's interception set Chicago up at the Seattle 6, he ran in from the 5, after a delay of game had pushed Chicago back from the 1, for 34-17.

The second half was his: 16 carries for 43 yards and +3.1 EPA, after 11 for 26 and -1.2 before the break.

Per carry it was above his season. Through Week 7, in seven games, he had 116 carries for 476 yards, 7 touchdowns and -7.0 EPA, -0.06 a carry and a 44.0% success rate; here it was +0.07 a carry, at 2.6 yards a carry against 4.1. The three touchdowns matched his Week 1 total.

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_Data via nflverse._