Geno Smith — Week 7: 287 Yards, Three Touchdowns

Geno Smith threw three touchdown passes against the Dolphins, matching his season high, and completed 23 of 30 for 287 yards with an interception in a 28-25 loss at home. His dropbacks were worth +0.35 expected points added (EPA) each, what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, and his completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which compares completions with what each throw's difficulty predicts, was +11.2.

The drive that defined his day came down 28-17 with 4:44 left. Facing fourth and 4 at his own 41, he threw short right to Isaiah Davis, who took it 41 yards to the Miami 18: +5.07 EPA. On third and 4 at the 12, he hit Mason Taylor short left for the touchdown, +2.93 EPA and 11.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, then found Taylor again for the two-point conversion. Earlier, down 21-7 in the third, his 60-yard throw deep middle to Omar Cooper Jr. on third and 7 set up Cooper's 3-yard touchdown three snaps later.

Two snaps cost him most. Down 14-7 early in the second, first and 10 at the Miami 21, a short throw over the middle for Taylor was intercepted at the 15, -4.87 EPA. Down 21-14 in the fourth, on third and 3 at the 3, he was sacked for a 12-yard loss, -13.0 points of win probability, and the Jets kicked a field goal.

It was a long step up on his start. Through Week 6 he had completed 122 of 177 for 1,336 yards, 7 touchdowns and 1 interception, at +0.06 EPA per dropback over 204 dropbacks, with a CPOE of +4.2.

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_Data via nflverse._