Geno Smith — Week 8: 290 Yards, an End-Zone Pick

Geno Smith threw for 290 yards against the Raiders and lost on his final throw: 20 of 32, two touchdowns, an interception, sacked twice, plus a 4-yard scramble. Over 35 dropbacks he was worth +11.8 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, +0.34 per dropback. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was +10.8. He went deep 14 times and completed 8 for 194 yards.

The throw that should have won it came down 35-30 with 6:11 left. A holding penalty had erased Maxx Crosby's 12-yard sack, and on first and 10 at his own 40 Smith went deep left to Adonai Mitchell, who caught it 46 yards downfield at the Raiders' 13: +3.0 EPA and 19.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Two throws from the 13 fell incomplete, and the Jets kicked a field goal for 35-33. With 14 seconds left, from the Raiders' 35, he threw deep left for Garrett Wilson and Jeremy Chinn intercepted in the end zone, Crosby credited with a hit on the throw: 18.0 points of win probability.

The first half was his. Down 7-6 in the second quarter, first and 10 at the 18, he threw deep over the middle to Isaiah Williams for the touchdown, and on fourth and 1 at the 12 he hit Mitchell short right for another, +3.4 EPA. His 18 first-half pass plays were worth +10.4 EPA; the 16 after halftime came to +1.4. Crosby's 10-yard sack on third and 6 at the 11 before the half pushed the Jets back to a 39-yard field goal.

The rate beat his season. Through Week 7 he was at +0.11 per dropback, +27.5 EPA on 240 dropbacks, with a CPOE of +5.2 and 21 sacks.

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_Data via nflverse._