Jahmyr Gibbs — Week 7: 29 Carries and the Winning Drive

Jahmyr Gibbs carried Detroit's offense against the Packers and gave back more than he gained by expected points added (EPA): 29 carries, 116 yards and -6.6 EPA, plus 5 catches on 6 targets for 27 yards and -2.4. EPA is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position. 15 of his 29 carries (52%) gained positive EPA, against 50% through his first five games.

Two carries cost the most. Up 10-7 with 30 seconds left in the half, second and 10 at the Green Bay 12, he ran 6 yards up the middle and fumbled, and Green Bay recovered at the 8: -4.5 EPA. Tied 17-17 with 4:53 left, Detroit went for it on fourth and 1 at its own 24, and he was stopped for a 2-yard loss, -3.6 EPA and 12.6 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. One snap earlier, on third and 1, he had caught a pass for no gain.

He finished it anyway. After Green Bay's field goal was blocked, he carried seven times for 39 yards on the last drive: 2 to open it, 15 off right tackle to the Green Bay 25 after Sam LaPorta's catch, then 2, 3, 8 and 1 as the Packers spent their timeouts. On third and 6 at the 11, after a false start, he went 8 yards around left end to the 3, +2.3 EPA, and Jake Bates kicked the winner from 22.

The 29 carries matched his season high from Week 1. Through his first five games he had 105 carries, 504 yards, 7 touchdowns and +4.5 EPA, +0.04 a carry; here it was -0.23. He had caught 27 of 34 targets for 234 yards and +6.5 EPA.

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_Data via nflverse._