Jake Ferguson — Week 4: Seven Yards on Fourth and Four
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Tuesday, Oct 6
Ferguson caught 3 of 4 targets for 11 yards against Houston, and the one that mattered was a 7-yard catch on fourth and 4 at the Dallas 32 with 1:34 left, down 30–27, on the drive that ended in CeeDee Lamb's winning touchdown, in a 34–30 win over the Texans.
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The full read
30 to 27, Texans, a minute 34 left, fourth and four at the Dallas 32. Out of the no-huddle, Dak Prescott threw short over the middle to Jake Ferguson, and he was brought down at the 39, three yards past the line to gain. +1.9 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 10 and a half points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. Seven snaps later CeeDee Lamb caught the winner.
The line: four targets, three catches, 11 yards, one first down, about minus point one expected points on his targets. The other two catches were two yards each, on second and eight at the end of the first quarter and first and 10 early in the second. The incompletion was third and 16 in the second quarter, followed by a punt.
Four targets were fourth on the team, on a day Lamb drew 21. Back in June the preview's read was volume over touchdowns. Four games: 15 targets, 12 catches, 83 yards, three touchdowns, all three in Weeks 2 and 3.
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_Data via nflverse._
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