J.K. Dobbins — Week 2: Three Carries From the One, No Score

Seven to nothing, Jaguars, nine 16 left in the second quarter, first and goal at the Jacksonville one, the snap after Jaylen Waddle's 49-yard catch. J.K. Dobbins went over right guard for no gain. Second down, an extra lineman reported in, left end, no gain. Third down, left end again, thrown back to the two. That last carry was worth −2.6 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and −6.9 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. By both measures it was Denver's second-worst play of the day, behind the interception. Wil Lutz kicked a 20-yard field goal.

The line: 10 carries, 36 yards, no touchdown, one first down, three of the 10 successful, −3.2 expected points on the carries, no targets. The carries went four, one, 15, five, six, nothing, nothing, −1, two and four. The 15 was the first down: first and 10 from the Denver 12 with 10 10 left in the first quarter, over right guard. Eight carries before halftime for 30, two after for six. A five-yard run in the first quarter came back on a holding penalty. 36 yards is the same total as Week 1, on two more carries.

The split finished Dobbins 10, Jonah Coleman 10, but the halves were different games. Dobbins had eight of Denver's 11 designed runs before halftime. His last carry came with a minute 33 left in the third quarter, and in the fourth Coleman took eight carries, the go-ahead touchdown among them. NBC Sports' Pro Football Talk reported during the game that Dobbins was questionable to return with a hamstring injury. That is all this show knows about it, and it will not add a timeline.

Back in June the preview leaned overpriced on Dobbins — named the lead back after a 10-game season, two downs by design, with a career availability rate under half of his team's games. Week 1 matched the usage: the most carries on the team, no targets. Sunday matched it again for three quarters, no targets again, and then the other part of the read showed up in an injury report. One successful carry in eight in Week 1, three in 10 this week, nothing in three tries from the one. Two games do not settle a workload, and the next fact that matters is not in the play-by-play. Denver is home to the Rams on Sunday night the 20-seventh.

_Data via nflverse._