Jonathon Brooks — Week 1: A Forty-Eight-Yard Catch and Four Carries
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 14
Brooks's one catch Sunday was the biggest win-probability play Carolina had — second and ten at its own twenty-six with three forty-one left in the half, down 24–21, Bryce Young deep right, forty-eight yards to the Chicago twenty-six. He ran four times for fourteen yards, was thrown to once more on third and three in the third quarter, incomplete, and Chuba Hubbard carried ten times in a 59–37 loss to the Bears.
When Jonathon Brooks's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
The full episode, in writing
Jonathon Brooks's first catch of the season went 48 yards, and no Panthers pass or run moved the game more all afternoon. Three 41 left in the second quarter, second and 10 at the Carolina 26, Carolina down 24 to 21: Bryce Young deep right, 22 yards in the air, Brooks to the Chicago 26. That was worth +3.4 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 13.8 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it, more than Jalen Coker's 51-yard touchdown. Three incompletions from the 26 followed, and Carolina kicked a 44-yard field goal to tie it.
The carries: one yard behind the right tackle on first and 10 at the Carolina 17 with one 54 left in the first, down 14 to seven; five behind the left guard on second and 14; six behind the right guard on first and 15 at the Carolina 49 in the third. The fourth was the one worth retelling — second and two at the Carolina 34 with four 11 left in the half, around left end and out of bounds at the 46 for 12 yards on the field, with a holding call on Carolina enforced at the 36, so the book says two yards and the next down was second and 10 from the 26. The next snap was the 48-yarder. Four carries, 14 yards, one successful, −1.6 expected points; a fifth carry, for one yard, was wiped out by a Bears offside. His other target was third and three at the Chicago 39 with 58 seconds left in the third, down 38 to 31, short right, incomplete; Young's fourth-down throw to Tetairoa McMillan was incomplete too, and Kyle Monangai ran 61 yards on the next snap.
The split: Chuba Hubbard 10 carries, AJ Dillon five — all on the final possession, the one Kenny Pickett finished — Brooks four, Young two, Pickett one. Three of Brooks's four came before halftime. Carolina ran 22 times against 40 pass plays, and Hubbard had all three of the running-back targets that were not Brooks's.
Back in June the preview made no call on Brooks, on purpose: nine career carries and two knee reconstructions, a lottery ticket with odds that were unknowable rather than bad. Sunday added four carries to the nine and one catch that was the best play Carolina's offense made. It is not a role, and after one game it was never going to be. Carolina is at the Falcons on Sunday the twentieth.
_Data via nflverse._
When Jonathon Brooks's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
Keep going