Josh Downs — Week 2: Four Third Downs, Four Conversions
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 21
Downs caught seven of nine targets for 72 yards and six first downs, and converted all four third downs thrown his way — four of the five the Colts converted on a pass or a run. His nine targets led the team and were worth plus 8.2 expected points, the most of any Colts receiver, in a 33–30 overtime loss to the Chiefs.
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Nothing to nothing, nine 34 left in the first quarter, third and four at the Kansas City 14. Daniel Jones threw short middle to Josh Downs for 11 yards to the three, and a roughing the passer call on top of it moved the ball to the one. +2.3 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 7.3 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. Two snaps later Tyler Warren scored.
That was the first of four. Third and six at the Kansas City 31 with a minute 10 left in the half, down 17 to 13: short right, seven yards, pushed out at the 24, with offsetting unnecessary roughness calls on Downs and L'Jarius Sneed; Jonathan Taylor scored from there on the next snap. Third and six at the Kansas City 18 with seven 10 left in the fourth quarter, down 27 to 20: short middle, six yards to the 12; Taylor tied the game two snaps later. Third and four at the Indianapolis 38 at the two-minute warning, tied at 27: short right, five yards, worth 8.8 points of win probability, the most of any of his catches. Four third-down targets, four catches, four conversions. The Colts converted five third downs all night on a pass or a run, and the fifth was a Warren carry.
The line: nine targets, seven catches, 72 yards, no touchdown, six first downs, +8.2 expected points on the targets, the most of any Colts receiver, a figure Tyquan Thornton of the Chiefs matched to a hundredth of a point. 73 air yards on the nine throws, 22 yards after the catch. The catches went 11, 14, nine, seven, 20, six and five. The 20 was second and 11 at the Indianapolis 46 with 12-oh-three left in the fourth, deep left, 17 in the air, out of bounds at the Kansas City 34, on the drive that tied the game. The two incompletions were both on second and long in the second quarter, one short left with Sneed credited on the breakup and one deep left, 21 yards in the air. Six targets before halftime, three after.
Nine targets led the Colts, ahead of Warren's seven and Keenan Allen's five, a share of 30 percent on 30 credited targets. Alec Pierce had one target, in the first two minutes; CBS Sports reported he left with a heel injury.
Back in June the preview made no call on Downs. He had gone from a quarter of the Colts' targets two seasons ago to under 18 percent last year, was priced as the 40-seventh receiver, and which version of the role came back was a coaching decision the show could not price. Week 1 was two third-down conversions on the opening drive and then 22 Jones passes without a target, and that episode named targets after the first quarter as the number to watch. Sunday night the number was seven of his nine. Across two games he has caught six of the eight third downs Indianapolis has converted on a pass or a run. The caution is the one above: most of this came with Pierce out of the game, so two weeks have given one reading with the room full and one with it short. Indianapolis is home to the Texans on Sunday the 20-seventh.
_Data via nflverse._
When Josh Downs's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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