Juwan Johnson — Week 2: Two Twenty-Fives on Third Down
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 21
Johnson caught all 4 of his targets for 66 yards, 55 of them after the catch, including 25 yards on third and thirteen in the third quarter and 25 more on third and eight to the Baltimore five with 2:03 left, the largest win-probability swing of the game. His 6-yard catch to the one came two snaps before the winning touchdown, in a 24–17 win over the Ravens.
When Juwan Johnson's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
The full episode, in writing
17 all, two oh three left in the fourth quarter, third and eight at the Baltimore 30. Tyler Shough threw short right to Juwan Johnson, three yards in the air, and Johnson took it 25 yards to the Baltimore five. A roughing-the-passer flag on Trey Hendrickson was added on, half the distance to the two. +3.4 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 18.2 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it. No play by either team moved the win probability more. A false start pushed the Saints back to the seven, a throw to Devaughn Vele fell incomplete, and then Johnson caught six yards short left to the one; replay looked at whether he had scored and upheld the spot. Two sneaks later Shough was in the end zone.
The line: four targets, four catches, 66 yards, two first downs, +7.0 expected points on his targets, the highest figure for any targeted player on either team. 11 air yards and 55 after the catch. The catches: 10 on third and 16 early in the second quarter, six short of the sticks, punt; 25 on third and 13 from the New Orleans 36 with 13 oh seven left in the third, a throw caught a yard behind the line and pushed out at the Baltimore 39, on the drive that ended in a 51-yard field goal; the 25 to the five; and the six to the one. The two 25-yarders traveled two yards in the air between them. Three of his four targets came on third down, all three were caught, and two converted. A nine-yard catch in the second quarter came back on an offside call against Bryce Lance. One target before halftime, three after.
Four targets put him fourth on the team, behind Chris Olave's 10, Vele's seven and Alvin Kamara's six, on 34 throws. The tight end room as a whole had five: Johnson's four and one to Oscar Delp. Noah Fant, who out-targeted Johnson eight to seven in Week 1, was not thrown to, and his only appearance in the play-by-play is that false start at the two.
Back in June the preview's read on Johnson was a tenth-place tight end season across 17 games, with the open question of whether his target volume would hold once the Saints added mouths to the room. Week 1 was three catches on seven targets for 54 yards and a touchdown, every catch inside the last 73 seconds of regulation or in overtime. Sunday the volume was lower, four targets, and the yield was higher, and again the big catches came at the end. The preview's caution applies to exactly this kind of line: yardage after the catch on four targets is efficiency, and efficiency is the part that repeats least. What the two games do show is where the ball goes on the last drive. New Orleans is home to the Raiders on Sunday the 20-seventh.
_Data via nflverse._
When Juwan Johnson's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
Keep going