Luther Burden — Week 1: Five for Five, and a Fumble on the First One
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 14
Burden caught all five of his targets for sixty-three yards, but the first — seven yards on second and seven from the Chicago twenty-three, the third snap of the season — was knocked loose and recovered by Carolina at the forty-two, and the Panthers scored on the drive. His twenty-four-yard catch with thirty-eight seconds left in the half set up Caleb Williams's twenty-nine-yard touchdown run in a 59–37 win over the Panthers.
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The third play of Chicago's season was a completion to Luther Burden and a turnover. 14 oh six left in the first quarter, second and seven at the Chicago 23, no score: Caleb Williams short right to Burden for seven yards, the ball knocked loose, recovered by Carolina at the Chicago 42. That play was worth −3.5 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and seven and a half points of win probability. Five plays from scrimmage later, Bryce Young threw four yards to Chuba Hubbard and Carolina led seven to nothing.
After that he caught four more, and the two that mattered most were both on drives that ended in Bears touchdowns. 15 yards short middle on third and 10 at the Chicago 27 with nine 49 left in the first, down seven to nothing, on the drive Williams finished with a nine-yard scramble. 24 yards deep left on second and 10 from the Chicago 47 with 38 seconds left in the half, tied 24 to 24, to the Carolina 29: +1.8 expected points and 10.4 points of win probability, and the next snap was Williams's 29-yard touchdown run. Five in the third, 12 on second and 14 in the fourth. Five targets, five catches, 63 yards, no touchdowns, +1.5 expected points on the targets in total, which means the fumble is the whole of what was subtracted. He also ran once, around right end for two yards in the first quarter.
He was second on the Bears in targets: nine to Kalif Raymond, five to Burden, three each to Cole Kmet and Rome Odunze. Three of his came before halftime and two after, in a second half where Chicago threw 13 times and ran 19. His one third-down target was the 15-yarder, and it converted.
Back in June the preview's line on Burden was four targets a game at a WR21 price — a rookie WR50 across 15 games on modest volume, and a floor that was roughly what you had already seen. Sunday was five targets, one above the number, with every one of them caught and the first one lost. That is one game's worth of evidence on volume, and it landed about where the preview put it. Chicago is home to the Vikings on Sunday the twentieth.
_Data via nflverse._
When Luther Burden's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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