Michael Penix — Week 7: Three Touchdowns, No Sacks

Michael Penix Jr. beat the 49ers clean: 25 of 34 for 213 yards and three touchdowns, no interceptions and no sacks, in Atlanta's 29-20 win at home. Over 34 dropbacks, one scramble included, he was worth +8.7 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, +0.26 per dropback. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was +5.5.

The throw that defined his day came on the first snap of the fourth quarter. Up 19-14, first and 10 at the San Francisco 21, he went deep left to Drake London for the touchdown: +2.18 EPA and 6.5 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The go-ahead score came earlier in the second half: third and 7 at the San Francisco 28, he hit London for 10, then for 12 to the 5, and found Kyle Pitts from there. In the second quarter Khalil Herbert's 19-yard catch on second and 2 reached the 1, and Penix threw to Nick Muse for the first touchdown.

Two snaps late in the game went the other way. An aborted snap early in the fourth lost 12 yards and -1.96 EPA, and up 26-20 with 4:16 left, his third-and-12 throw deep middle for Jahan Dotson fell incomplete before a 20-yard punt.

It was more than double his rate coming in. Through Week 6, in four games, he had +12.4 EPA on 122 dropbacks, +0.10 per dropback, with a CPOE of -1.5. The 213 yards were his fewest in five games; the three touchdowns matched his Week 6 total.

Follow Michael Penix on Muffed, and every episode lands in your weekly email.

_Data via nflverse._