Dallas Cowboys RPO rate, 2026

From the Cowboys weekly

Fourth and four at the Dallas thirty-two, a minute thirty-four left, down thirty to twenty-seven. On the snap before, third and one, CeeDee Lamb had been thrown to behind the line and brought down for a loss of three. Now, out of the no-huddle, Dak Prescott threw short over the middle to Jake Ferguson for seven yards and the first down. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, that snap moved ten and a half points Dallas's way. Seven snaps later, second and ten at the Houston twelve with forty-three seconds left, Prescott went short over the middle to Lamb for a twelve-yard touchdown, plus three point four expected points added — expected points added being what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, against what that situation was already worth — and twenty-nine points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. The Cowboys won thirty-four to thirty in Houston and are two and two.