Los Angeles Chargers expected points added per play, 2026

From the Chargers weekly

Third and five at the Buffalo twenty-three, thirteen thirty-eight left in the game, the Chargers up thirteen to ten. On the first snap of the fourth quarter the defense had taken the ball away for the fifth time, a strip-sack of Josh Allen ruled down by contact on the field and overturned when the Chargers challenged, and the offense had started at the Buffalo twenty-eight. Justin Herbert threw deep middle for Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Gardner-Johnson intercepted it at the Buffalo one and brought it back forty-one yards. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, that throw was minus five point eight. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, it cost eighteen points: the Chargers had been at seventy-five percent before the snap. Buffalo drove fifty-eight yards for its first lead of the day, scored again, and won twenty-four to sixteen. The Chargers led for about thirty-nine minutes, did not trail until seven thirty-seven remained, and are oh and three.