Bears 31, Falcons 23 — Week 6: 30 of 36, and Gordon's Three Sacks

Chicago won 31-23 at Atlanta on Sunday, scored touchdowns on its first two drives, and needed Kyler Gordon's third sack to close it. The Bears led 21-7 at halftime and 31-7 after the first snap of the fourth quarter, with 10 of those points coming off two Atlanta giveaways in the return game. Then Roschon Johnson fumbled, Atlanta scored twice with two two-point throws, and it was 31-23 with 5:46 left. Gordon's strip-sack with 3:01 left ended it.

The passing game Smashed, and its success rate leads the case: 57.5% of 40 pass plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at +10.6, +0.27 a play against +0.02 through Week 5. Caleb Williams completed 30 of 36 for 305 yards and a touchdown and was sacked four times. Luther Burden III caught all 8 of his targets for 95 yards, Colston Loveland 6 of 7 for 65 and the touchdown, and Rome Odunze 3 for 39. The play that set the tone came on the opening drive, 0-0, third and 11 at the Atlanta 42. Williams threw short right to Odunze, who pitched it to Johnson, and Johnson ran it out of bounds at the 28, 14 yards in all, +3.0 EPA and 12.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Four plays later Loveland scored from 14 on second and 13. On the next drive Odunze's 23-yard catch on third and 17, +3.2 EPA, kept alive the drive that ended in D'Andre Swift's touchdown.

The run game scored three times and lost ground on nearly everything else, and total EPA shows it: 32 rush plays worth -7.9, -0.25 a play against +0.03 through Week 5, for 99 yards at a 40.6% success rate. Swift ran 16 times for 44 and two touchdowns, Johnson 13 for 51 and one, all three from 4 yards or closer. Johnson's fumble up 31-15 with 7:21 left cost -5.6 EPA and set up Atlanta's last touchdown. Williams converted third and 1 at the Atlanta 19 himself with 2:46 left, and Chicago ran out the clock.

The pass defense Smashed too, and on defense a negative number is the good direction: Atlanta's 38 pass plays were worth -11.9 EPA, -0.31 a play against +0.01 allowed through Week 5, and only 28.9% succeeded. Michael Penix Jr. completed 19 of 33 for 225 yards and three touchdowns, and was sacked five times. Gordon had three and forced two fumbles; Daniel Hardy and Dillon Thieneman had one each. The last sack decided it. Up 31-23 with 3:01 left, third and 16 at the Atlanta 22, Gordon dropped Penix at the 14 and forced the ball out, and Devin Bush recovered at the 28, -3.1 EPA for Atlanta. Chicago stopped Atlanta on 9 of 12 third downs and on all three fourth downs it tried.

The run defense was quiet and better than its average. Atlanta's 12 rush plays were worth -3.5 EPA, -0.29 a play against +0.01 allowed through Week 5, for 63 yards at a 33.3% success rate. The leak was Bijan Robinson's 23-yard run on second and 1 in the second quarter.

The game turned on the special teams, which turned a 14-7 lead into 31-7. With 1:52 left in the half, Josh Blackwell recovered a punt Zachariah Branch could not hold at the Atlanta 10, and Swift scored from the 2. Late in the third, Zavier Scott forced Branch's fumble on a kickoff return, Nick McCloud recovered at the Atlanta 31, and Cairo Santos kicked a 50-yard field goal. The defense had already held at its own 28 on fourth and 3 to open the third, up 21-7. Chicago converted 9 of 17 third downs and scored four touchdowns on 17 red-zone snaps. Its 14 drives brought four touchdowns, a field goal and one turnover.

Last week's notebook asked whether a run defense that held Green Bay in check would get help from the pass defense. It did: Atlanta's passing game finished at -0.31 a play, against +0.01 allowed through Week 5, and its run game at -0.29. The one to watch next: whether a run game that scored three times at -0.25 a play, against +0.03 through Week 5, starts gaining ground between the 20s, and whether Johnson's fumble was a one-off.

That's your Bears, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bears on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._