Bengals 17, Jaguars 22 — Week 4: One Yard Short on Fourth and Ten

Fourth and 10 at the Jacksonville 21, 56 seconds left, Cincinnati down 22 to 17 with no timeouts. Three snaps had carried the Bengals from their own 17 into range: 29 yards to Mitchell Tinsley, 18 to Mike Gesicki, 15 to Dohnte Meyers. Then three straight incompletions. On fourth down Joe Burrow threw short over the middle to Chase Brown, and Brown was brought down at the 12. Nine yards, one short. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, that snap took Cincinnati from about 30 percent to three, the biggest swing of the game. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was −2.3. Jacksonville knelt twice. The Bengals lost 22 to 17 at home on a day Burrow threw for 428 yards.

The passing game opens on two snaps, because they outweigh the other 54. Two minutes left in the first half, down six to three, third and six at the Jacksonville 45: Burrow threw short over the middle for Dohnte Meyers, and Lewis intercepted and ran it back 45 yards to the Cincinnati 18. −6.2 expected points, 17 points of win probability, and Jacksonville turned the short field into a touchdown. The second interception gets its own paragraph below. Between them the two were worth −11.2. The whole passing game, 56 pass plays counting two sacks, still finished at +7.4, with 52 percent of them successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. At the rate Cincinnati passed over the first three weeks, those plays would have been worth about +6. 54 throws and 428 yards are both Burrow's most this season. Tee Higgins drew 16 targets and caught 11 for a hundred 57 yards; Brown caught all 11 of his. Ja'Marr Chase caught three for 27, and the play-by-play marks him injured on the last of them early in the second quarter; he was not thrown to again. Charting shows little disguise: play-action on nine of 58 dropbacks, 16 percent, 20-fifth of the 30 charted offenses this week, even though Burrow completed all seven of his play-action throws.

The run game opens on its yardage, because there almost was none: 15 rush plays, 23 yards, −4.1 expected points, four of the 15 successful. At the rate the Bengals ran over the first three weeks, those 15 would have been worth about zero. Brown had nine carries for 10 yards, Samaje Perine three for seven, Burrow three for six, the last a one-yard touchdown. The best run of the day did not count: first and 10 at the Jacksonville 14 in the second quarter, Perine left tackle for a touchdown, and a holding call on Fairchild brought it back. That drive ended in a 29-yard field goal. It was not the fronts. Jacksonville showed a light box, six or fewer defenders, on six of 13 designed runs, 46 percent, seventeenth of the 30 charted offenses this week and close to the 43 percent Cincinnati saw over the first three weeks. Those 13 runs gained 18 yards, under a yard and a half a run, after about four a run in Weeks 1 to 3. In the fourth quarter Cincinnati called two runs.

The pass defense allowed more per play than in any of its first three games. 27 Jacksonville pass plays, four of them sacks, were worth +10.2 expected points to the Jaguars; on defense a positive number is the bad direction. At the rate this defense allowed over the first three weeks, about −2. Brenton Strange caught seven of eight targets for 95 yards. The rush is what changed: Cincinnati sent five or more pass rushers on eight of 27 dropbacks, 30 percent, fifteenth of the 30 charted defenses this week, after 13 percent over the first three weeks, and four different Bengals had a sack. It did not make the throws hard. Charters marked 18 of Trevor Lawrence's 23 throws catchable and only one contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, after 21 percent contested across his first three games. The throws that hurt came on long downs: third and 18 from the Jacksonville 11 in a scoreless first quarter, Lawrence to Strange over the middle for 23, +3.2, on the drive that ended in Little's 55-yard field goal; and with two 34 left, Jacksonville up five, third and eight at its own 30, Strange for 15.

The run defense opens on what got through. 25 Jacksonville rush plays gained a hundred 13 yards and +0.9 expected points; at the rate this defense allowed over the first three weeks, about −3.7. Two Bhayshul Tuten touchdowns were called back for holding, and Jacksonville scored on both drives anyway, a field goal and Brian Thomas's seven-yard touchdown catch. The one that stood was Chris Rodriguez's, first and 10 at the Cincinnati 25 with six 42 left, left guard, touchdown, 22 to 10. The best stand was Mafe's: third and eight early in the fourth quarter, Rodriguez dropped for a loss of two, and Jacksonville punted. The charting has nothing unusual underneath: a light box on 52 percent of designed runs against 56 over the first three weeks, and four and a half yards a designed run, close to this defense's 4.4 in Weeks 1 to 3.

The game turned on the last snap of one drive. Down 16 to 10 late in the third quarter, a holding call left Cincinnati at third and 16 from its own 20. Burrow went deep right to Dohnte Meyers for 29, +3.6. Brown converted third and four. On the first snap of the fourth quarter Higgins went deep right for 26 to the Jacksonville 10, and the Bengals were at 44 percent. Next snap, Burrow threw short right for Tinsley, and Oluokun intercepted at the 10. −5 point oh expected points and 22 points of win probability. Jacksonville punted, but the Bengals did too, and the Jaguars went 76 yards for the Rodriguez touchdown. Burrow's one-yard touchdown run with three 33 left made it 22 to 17, and Strange's third-down catch made the Bengals spend their last two timeouts before they got the ball back.

Now what repeats. Last week's notebook had three lines. Burrow's contested rate, well under last season's for three games, went the other way: 10 of 54 throws contested, 19 percent, against 15 over the first three weeks, and two were charted interception-worthy, after one in his first hundred three throws. His catchable rate held at 76 percent, ninth of 30 this week. The run defense that swung from the second-fewest yards per designed run to the most landed near its own average. And the one figure that had not moved, the pass rush, moved: five or more on 30 percent of dropbacks, more than double the early rate, for four sacks. The line for next week's notebook is the run game: 13 designed runs against 58 dropbacks, at under a yard and a half a run. Whether the Bengals keep calling it is the question.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Burrow 23.7: 39 of 54, a touchdown pass, two interceptions and the rushing touchdown. Higgins 21.2. Brown 13.6. Dohnte Meyers 11.7 on seven catches for 82. Gesicki 11 and a half, with the 15-yard touchdown on third and seven in the third quarter. Tinsley 6.4, Chase 4.2. For Jacksonville, Lawrence 13.1 and Strange 13 even.

The thread, for anyone new. Cincinnati beat Tampa Bay 33 to 27 at home, won 20 to six in Houston, lost 30 to 27 in Pittsburgh, and now 22 to 17 at home to Jacksonville. Two and two, both losses by one score. This one had the most passing yards of the four and the fewest rushing yards, and it came down to one yard.

That's your Bengals — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bengals show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._