Bengals 31, Dolphins 24 — Week 5: Four Burrow TDs, Two Battle Picks

Cincinnati won 31-24 at Miami on Sunday and is 3-2, with a passing game that scored four times and a pass defense that took the ball away three times. Joe Burrow threw four touchdown passes on 190 yards. Jordan Battle intercepted Malik Willis twice in the second quarter, and Jonathan Allen's strip-sack with 2:34 left set up the field goal that made it 31-18. The offense scored touchdowns on 4 of 9 drives and had no three-and-outs. The run defense was the one thing that went wrong, and it went wrong for 217 yards.

The passing game smashed by expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth. Its 32 pass plays were worth +8.7 EPA, +0.27 a play, against +0.11 through Week 4, and 59.4% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Burrow went 23 of 32 for 190 yards and four touchdowns to four different receivers. Three were short, 4 yards to Mike Gesicki on the opening drive, 6 to Samaje Perine and 2 to Tanner Hudson. The fourth broke it open. Up 21-10 with 47 seconds left in the third, second and 7 at the Miami 45, Burrow threw deep middle to Ja'Marr Chase for the touchdown, a snap worth +4.6 EPA: 28-10. Chase caught 6 of 10 targets for 77 yards. None of Burrow's 32 throws was charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should catch, after 3 in 157 through Week 4. He was catchable on 75%, against 77.7%, and contested on 21.9%, a receiver and a defender arriving together, against 15.9%. Miami sent five or more pass rushers on 7 of 33 dropbacks, 21.2%, against the 26.9% this offense saw through Week 4. Cincinnati converted 9 of 13 third downs.

The run game was steady and called often, and its success rate tells it: 51.7% of 29 rush plays were successful. They came to 0.0 EPA, 0.00 a play, against -0.07 through Week 4, for 119 yards and no touchdowns. Perine ran 14 times for 68 yards and Chase Brown 13 for 39. The 28 designed runs gained 108 yards, after 275 on 76 through Week 4. Miami showed six or fewer in the box on 14 of them, 50%, against 43.4%.

The pass defense smashed, and its EPA total says so: Miami's 29 pass plays were worth -12.2 EPA, -0.42 a play, against +0.01 allowed through Week 4. On defense a big negative number is the good direction. Only 37.9% of those plays succeeded, and they gained 137 yards. Willis went 15 of 27 with two interceptions, both to Battle, and was sacked three times, by Boye Mafe for 10 yards, by Barrett Carter for 8 at the Cincinnati 11, and by Allen. Allen's ended it. Up 28-18 with 2:34 left, Miami second and 10 at its own 9, he sacked Willis at the 5, knocked the ball loose and recovered it himself at the 10, a snap worth -4.7 EPA to Miami. Evan McPherson kicked a 26-yard field goal four snaps later. The charting says the pressure came without extra rushers: five or more on 5 of 33 dropbacks, 15.2%, close to 16.2% through Week 4. Willis was catchable on 57.7%, against the 71% this defense allowed through Week 4, and 2 of his 26 charted throws were interception-worthy, after 2 in 138.

The run defense was Muffed. Miami's 34 rush plays gained 217 yards and two touchdowns, worth +9.0 EPA, +0.26 a play against -0.09 allowed through Week 4; on defense a positive number is the bad direction, and 52.9% of them succeeded. Ollie Gordon II ran 18 times for 88 yards and a touchdown, including 22 yards on third and 10 on Miami's first drive. Willis ran 8 times for 74, 39 on a third-and-13 scramble to open the fourth. It was not the fronts: Cincinnati was light on 16 of 30 designed runs, 53.3%, against the 54.7% opponents saw through Week 4, and those 30 gained 144 yards after 331 on 75. The best stand came in the third, up 21-7: Gordon had reached the 1 when Demetrius Knight Jr. dropped him for a loss of 2, Carter's sack followed, and Miami settled for a field goal.

The game turned in the second quarter, between 10:32 and 1:00, and Cincinnati gave one back in the middle of it. Up 14-7, with Miami at midfield after a 22-yard catch, Battle intercepted a short throw for Kevin Coleman Jr. on second and 10, -4.6 EPA for Miami and 9.9 points of win probability. The offense drove to the Miami 10, and on second and 6 Brown caught a short pass and fumbled at the 7. Chop Robinson recovered and returned it before Ja'Marr Chase stripped him, but Joshua Uche fell on it for Miami, a snap that cost Cincinnati 5.5 expected points and 15.2 points of win probability. Three snaps later, third and 4 at the Miami 29, Battle intercepted Willis again. An unnecessary-roughness flag on Daxton Hill moved the ball back 15 yards, and the offense scored anyway, Burrow to Hudson from 2 yards with a minute left: 21-7.

The scheme leaned on options and took out the extras. Run-pass options came on 11 snaps, 18%, against 8.1% through Week 4. There was one screen in 33 dropbacks, 3%, after 9.4%, and no no-huddle at all, after 6.1%. Play-action stayed rare, 5 of 33 dropbacks, 15.2%, against 17%, and Burrow went 2 of 4 for 26 yards off it. He left the pocket 3 times.

Last week's notebook asked whether the Bengals would keep calling the run after a day they barely called it against Jacksonville. They did: 28 designed runs against 33 dropbacks, after 76 against 171 through Week 4, and the run game finished above its season rate. The one to watch next: whether a run defense that allowed +0.26 a play here, after -0.09 through Week 4, gets back to its first-month form, and whether Burrow's contested rate settles back from 21.9% toward the 15.9% he carried in.

That's your Bengals, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bengals on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._