Bengals 35, Ravens 13 — Week 7: Five Straight TD Drives

Cincinnati won 35-13 at Baltimore, its first game since the bye, and is 4-2 after trailing 13-0 at halftime. The first half brought three punts and 43 passing yards. The second brought touchdowns on five straight drives, from Mike Gesicki, Tee Higgins, Samaje Perine, Ja'Marr Chase and Drew Sample, before the Bengals punted with the game long decided. 10 drives produced five touchdowns, no turnovers and two three-and-outs.

The passing game Smashed after halftime, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, says by how much. Its 13 first-half pass plays were worth -0.33 a play; its 18 after the break were worth +1.25 a play. For the game, 31 pass plays came to +18.2 EPA, +0.59 a play against +0.14 through Week 5, and 61.3% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Joe Burrow completed 22 of 30 for 292 yards and four touchdowns without an interception, and was sacked once. He was 6 of 12 for 43 yards before halftime and 16 of 18 for 249 after it. Higgins caught 6 of 7 targets for 148 yards and Chase 5 of 7 for 62. The throw that put Cincinnati ahead came after Dohnte Meyers's 31-yard punt return to the Baltimore 47, down 13-7 late in the third. Burrow hit Higgins deep right for 19 on second and 6, Perine converted third and 1, and on first and 10 at the Baltimore 13, with 4:33 left in the quarter, Burrow threw short middle to Higgins for the touchdown, +2.0 EPA and 5.7 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win.

The run game held its level without adding to it, and success rate is the fair read: 50% of 20 rush plays succeeded. They were worth -1.3 EPA, -0.07 a play against -0.05 through Week 5, for 73 yards and a touchdown. Chase Brown ran 11 times for 39 yards. Perine ran 4 times for 16, including a 15-yard run to the Baltimore 8 and the 1-yard touchdown that made it 21-13 after the extra point. On the opening drive he was dropped for a loss of 2 on third and 1, -2.5 EPA.

The pass defense held Baltimore to one touchdown, and its four sacks lead the case. Boye Mafe had one and a half, Cashius Howell and Dexter Lawrence one each, and Bryan Cook a half. Baltimore's 38 pass plays were worth +3.5 EPA, +0.09 a play against -0.06 allowed through Week 5; on defense a positive number is the bad direction. The damage came early: 22 Baltimore pass plays before halftime were worth +16.0 EPA, starting with Zay Flowers's 48-yard touchdown on third and 9 on the third snap of the game. After the break 16 were worth -12.5. Tyler Huntley completed 23 of 34 for 298 yards. Up 28-13 with 7:25 left, first and 10 at the Baltimore 35, Demetrius Knight Jr. intercepted a short throw for Flowers and returned it 14 yards to the 24, -6.0 EPA for Baltimore. Sample scored three plays later.

The run defense Smashed, and EPA per play allowed measures it: Baltimore's 27 rush plays were worth -0.35 a play, against +0.01 allowed through Week 5. Here a negative number is the good direction, and -9.4 in total is a lot of it. Only 25.9% succeeded, for 83 yards. Derrick Henry ran 17 times for 45, and only 2 of his carries gained positive EPA. The stand that shaped the first half came up 7-0 in the second quarter: Henry was stopped for no gain on second and 1 at the Cincinnati 11, and Cook stopped him again on third and 1. A false start followed, and Baltimore kicked a field goal. Down 35-13, B.J. Hill stopped Huntley for no gain on fourth and 1 at the Cincinnati 48.

The game turned on the first snap of the fourth quarter. Up 14-13, the defense faced fourth and 2 at its own 12, and Huntley's throw for Josh Cuevas fell incomplete: 15.0 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. Three Brown runs later, second and 6 at its own 33, Burrow threw deep middle to Higgins for 44 yards, +3.2 EPA and 14.0 points of win probability, and Perine finished the drive from the 1. Higgins added 43 deep right on the next touchdown drive. Cincinnati converted 6 of 11 third downs and scored 5 touchdowns on 10 red-zone snaps; Baltimore scored none on its 10.

The Week 5 notebook asked whether a run defense that allowed +0.26 a play against Miami would get back to its first-month form. It did: -0.35 a play allowed here. Burrow's contested rate waits for the charting. The one to watch next: whether the passing game starts the way it finished, after -0.33 a play before halftime and +1.25 after it, and whether a run game at -0.07 a play, against -0.05 through Week 5, starts adding to it.

That's your Bengals, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bengals on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._