Lions 31, Bills 41 — Week 2: Nine of Eleven on Third Down

Fourth and five from the Buffalo 40, 11 40 left in the third quarter, Detroit down 27 to 10. Jared Goff to Sam LaPorta over the middle for 18, and four plays later Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a two-yard touchdown. That is the shape of Detroit's night: the passing game answered every time it was asked, and it was asked because nothing else worked. Detroit lost 41 to 31 at Buffalo on Thursday night, never led, was tied for the first five minutes and 47 seconds, and after Buffalo's second touchdown never got back within one score.

Start with the defense, because that is where the game went. Buffalo ran nine drives and scored touchdowns on six of them; the other three were two punts and the kneel-downs. No turnovers forced, no three-and-outs forced, not even a field goal. Buffalo converted nine of 11 third downs; across all of last season only one offense converted a higher share with 10 or more tries. The run defense is the number under all of it. 33 Buffalo rush plays, 206 yards, three touchdowns, +13.6 expected points added — expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, and on defense a big negative number is the good direction. Detroit's run defense was eighteenth in the league last season by that measure per play; at that rate the same 33 plays would have been worth about minus half a point. The worst day this run defense had all of last season was +8.7, against Pittsburgh in Week 16. 64 percent of Buffalo's runs were successful plays. It was not one long run: James Cook went 20 35 on consecutive snaps in the second quarter and 22 to the one in the fourth, Josh Allen scrambled for 13, 12 14 on the opening drive, and on a 15-play third-quarter drive that took eight minutes and 22 seconds, Allen converted three third-and-ones himself up the middle. Through the air Buffalo's 33 pass plays produced 248 yards, three touchdowns and +15.1, the third-worst passing day this defense has allowed since the start of last season. Add the two units together and Buffalo's offense produced +28.7 expected points, more than any offense produced against Detroit in any game last season, and more than all but three team-games in the whole league produced in 2025. Buffalo scored a touchdown on five of 11 red-zone snaps. The pass rush got home twice — Aidan Hutchinson's strip-sack of Allen on Buffalo's third snap, recovered by Buffalo, and Derrick Barnes for no yards in the third quarter — and took the ball away zero times.

The passing game was the good news, and it was very good. 42 pass plays — that count includes the four sacks — produced +18.6 expected points, 327 yards and four touchdowns, and 57 percent of them were successful plays. In Week 1 against New Orleans this unit was sixteenth in the league at roughly zero per play; Thursday's rate would have ranked fifth among Week 1's 32. Detroit's two best passing games last season were each worth about 24; Thursday would sit third on that list. Buffalo's pass defense was seventh in the league last season, and at that rate 42 plays would have been worth about −5. The plays: St. Brown for 34 down the left sideline on second and 10 with 28 seconds left in the third quarter, on the drive that ended in LaPorta's one-yard touchdown; St. Brown for 21 on third and two to open the second half; the LaPorta 18 on fourth and five; Isaac TeSlaa for 20 on fourth and 18 with two 12 left; and St. Brown's 27-yard touchdown down the middle at one 48. Jahmyr Gibbs caught the 11-yard touchdown on second and four that got Detroit on the board in the second quarter.

The run game did not show up. 20 rush plays, 66 yards, −4.2 expected points. Nine of the 20 gained nothing or lost yards, 13 gained three yards or fewer, and 30 percent were successful plays. The longest was Gibbs for 16; his 19-yard run in the second quarter came back on a holding penalty. Last season Detroit was 20-sixth in the league running the ball by expected points per attempt, and Buffalo's run defense was thirtieth — at Buffalo's rate from last season, 20 runs would have been worth about +2. Week 1 was 33 rush plays for a hundred 65 yards against New Orleans; Thursday was 20 for 66. The split tells you who was asked to do what: 42 pass plays to 20 runs on a night Detroit trailed from the nine-minute mark of the first quarter.

Situationally, the offense was two things at once. Third down was four of 11, and three of the seven failures were a sack on third and eight, a 13-yard sack on third and five, and an aborted snap on third and 11. Fourth down was two for two, and both conversions came on touchdown drives. 11 red-zone snaps produced three touchdowns. Field position was a problem all night: all nine Detroit drives started at the 35 or worse, one at the 10, and Buffalo held the ball for 33 minutes and 45 seconds.

The last real chance came after LaPorta's touchdown made it 34 to 24 with 10 57 left. The defense got its first stop since the second quarter — a punt, fair caught at the Detroit 10. Then three plays: incomplete to Gibbs, Gibbs for nothing, incomplete to St. Brown. Punt. Buffalo went eight plays for the touchdown that made it 41 to 24 with two 53 left, and St. Brown's touchdown after that came with the win probability model reading one-tenth of a percent.

Now the part where a Week 2 episode has to be honest about what it is. Two games is not a season, so the comparison is last year, when Detroit went nine and eight with the fifth-best passing game in the league by expected points per attempt, the 20-sixth-ranked run game, and the fourteenth-ranked defense. In Week 1 against New Orleans the passing game was sixteenth and the run game seventeenth, and Detroit won 31 to 30. On Thursday the passing game was the best it has been since last season's top two, the run game was gone, and the defense allowed more than it allowed in any game last season. Last season Detroit scored 31 or more and lost exactly once — 41 to 34 in Los Angeles in Week 15 — and that was also the only time it allowed 41. One game against the offense that finished third in the league last season does not settle anything. The defense finished fourteenth last year, and Thursday asked the question about it louder.

Detroit hosts the Jets next Sunday afternoon at Ford Field. Watch the run defense first, then whether the run game comes back against a different front.

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_Data via nflverse._