Lions 31, Jets 24 — Week 3: Forty-Nine Yards After the Tie

24 all, four oh six left, first and 10 at the Detroit 35, one snap after the Jets had tied it with a fourth-down touchdown and a two-point conversion. Jared Goff threw deep middle to Isaac TeSlaa for 49 yards to the Jets 16: 14 and a half points of win probability — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — and by expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, +3.1. Three snaps later, third and five at the 11, Goff threw short right to Jahmyr Gibbs for the touchdown with two 30 left: 17 points of win probability, the second-biggest swing of the game. The Jets reached the Detroit 28 on the next drive, and on second and 10 with 51 seconds left Geno Smith was sacked for 13 yards by Clark, who knocked the ball loose, and Jack Campbell recovered. Detroit won 31 to 24 at home, and has now scored 31 points in all three of its games.

The run defense is the lead, because it is the unit that reversed. 10 days earlier at Buffalo it allowed 206 rushing yards and +13.6 expected points on 33 rush plays — per play, the worst run defense in any of the 92 team games played this season. On Sunday: 19 Jets rush plays, 58 yards, −4.9 expected points, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. That is fourth-best per play of the 28 teams that have played so far this week, and the fourth-fewest rushing yards allowed. Only 26 percent of those runs were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, and 12 of the 19 gained three yards or fewer. At the rate this run defense allowed over the first two weeks, those same 19 would have been worth about +4. At last season's rate, when it ranked eighteenth, about zero. The stand to remember came in the fourth quarter: first and goal at the Detroit four, up 24 to 10, and two Breece Hall runs gained nothing. The Jets scored on third down anyway, on a pass.

The pass defense did not follow it. 277 passing yards allowed after sacks is 20-fifth of the 28 teams that have played this week. 42 Jets pass plays, including five sacks, were worth +10.8 expected points, with three touchdowns. At the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks they would have been worth about +7, and at last season's rate, when it ranked fourteenth, about zero. The one that tied it: fourth and six at the Detroit 23, four 11 left, up 24 to 16, Smith deep right to Garrett Wilson, ruled down at the one and overturned on the Jets' challenge to a 23-yard touchdown, with a Detroit pass interference penalty declined on the same snap. 20 points of win probability for the Jets, the biggest swing of the game. What the unit did have was the sacks, and three of the five came on snaps inside the Detroit 20. Two in a row in the third quarter, up 17 to seven, pushed the Jets from second and six at the seven back to the 24 and a field goal. The Jets ran 10 pass and rush plays inside the 20 and scored one touchdown on them.

Detroit's passing game opens on its success rate: 62 percent of 34 pass plays were successful, fourth of the 28 teams so far this week. They were worth +12.1 expected points, fourth by total so far this week, with 269 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions and two sacks taken. At the rate Detroit passed over the first two weeks those same 34 would have been worth about +8; at last season's rate, when it ranked fifth in the league, about +6. The snap before halftime: down seven to three, one 47 left in the first half, fourth and two at the Jets nine, Goff short left to TeSlaa for five — six points of win probability, +2.7 expected points — and two snaps later Amon-Ra St. Brown caught the four-yard touchdown that gave Detroit a lead it held until four oh six of the fourth quarter.

The run game is best told by halves: 11 rush plays for 48 yards before halftime, 17 for 85 after. 28 in all, a hundred 33 yards, two touchdowns, and 57 percent of them successful, fifth so far this week — but a total of minus point three expected points, close to zero. At the rate Detroit ran over the first two weeks, those plays would have been worth about −2 and a half. The opening drive of the third quarter went 80 yards and ended on second and four at the Jets 17, Gibbs around right end for the touchdown, 17 to seven. The one that failed: fourth and one at the Jets 45, eight 37 left, up 24 to 16, Gibbs for no gain. Seven points of win probability, −3 and a half expected points, and the Jets took over at their own 46 and tied it.

No three-and-outs — one of seven teams so far this week without one. Eight drives before the kneel-downs: four touchdowns, a field goal, two punts and the fourth-down stop. Third down was five of 10, and three of four when it needed two yards or fewer. On defense, third down went from two stops in 11 at Buffalo, the worst rate in the league that week, to six stops in 12. The drive that took the last six minutes of the third quarter went from the Detroit 38 to Gibbs from a yard out on the first snap of the fourth, 24 to 10, a lead the Jets then erased.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Detroit went nine and eight with the fifth-best passing game in the league by expected points per play, a run game 20-fourth, a pass defense fourteenth, a run defense eighteenth and a third-down offense twentieth. Week 1 was a 31 to 30 overtime win at home over New Orleans in which the defense allowed 469 yards, 378 of them passing after sacks. Week 2 was a 41 to 31 loss at Buffalo on a Thursday: the passing game ranked sixth in the league, and the defense was last in the league against the run, last on third down and last in points allowed. Sunday split that defense in two. The run defense went from the worst per-play game of the season to fourth-best of the 28 teams that have played so far this week. The pass defense, 20-eighth of 32 per play at Buffalo, was twentieth of those 28 on Sunday. And the passing offense has now been above last season's top-five rate two weeks running. Three games do not settle much. What this one added is a run defense that looked nothing like Buffalo, and a pass defense still waiting on its good week.

Detroit is at Carolina on Sunday night, October fourth.

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_Data via nflverse._