Lions, Week 3 — What Repeats: Fewer Rushers, Five Sacks

Detroit sent five or more pass rushers on nine of Geno Smith's 44 dropbacks. 20 percent, 20-sixth of the 32 defenses this week. 10 days earlier in Buffalo it was 55 percent, second in the league, and last week's notebook had that rate rising at every reading, from last season to Week 1 to Buffalo. It fell instead, to the lowest rate of the three games and under last season's 27. The pass rush got home anyway. Five sacks, as many as in Week 1 on 18 fewer dropbacks, and four of them came with four rushers; the one that ended the game, the strip-sack with 51 seconds left, came with six. None of the five was charted as Smith's fault, one week after the charting put all four of Jared Goff's sacks in Buffalo on Goff. Smith gave the rush no help either. He left the pocket on three of 44 dropbacks, two of them scrambles, the lowest rate of any starting quarterback this week. He stood in, and the four-man rush got there.

The run defense the Recap led on was built in the box. Detroit put seven or more defenders in it on 15 of the Jets' 17 designed runs, eight or more on six of them. Those six gained two yards between them. A light box came twice, 12 percent, the second-heaviest look any defense showed this week, with only Minnesota heavier. Last season this defense showed a light box 24 percent of the time with an average box of seven; on Sunday the average was seven and a half. The 17 runs gained 46 yards, 2.7 a carry. In Buffalo the box was light 29 percent of the time and the Bills ran for 5.6 a carry, kneel-downs aside. The bill for the crowd came through the air. 32 of Smith's 37 charted throws were catchable, 86 percent, tied with Pittsburgh for the second-highest rate any defense allowed this week. 11 of the 37 were contested, a defender arriving with the receiver, 30 percent and the fourth-highest share any defense forced, and the Jets caught most of them anyway, with four receptions charted as created by the receiver. Garrett Wilson caught 10 of 13 targets, Kenyon Sadiq seven of eight. Not one throw was charted interception-worthy, so there was nothing to take away.

On offense the fake is now the biggest thing on the sheet. Play-action came on 15 of 36 dropbacks, 42 percent, second in the league this week behind only Kansas City. It was 34 percent in Week 1 and 30 in Week 2, against about 25 across last season, so three games above last year and the widest gap yet. What changed is what it produced. Goff's 15 play-action throws went 12 for a hundred 50 yards, 10 a throw. His other 17 went 13 for a hundred 19, seven a throw. In each of the first two games the fake had gained less per throw than the straight dropback. This week it gained more. The one throw everyone remembers was not a fake: the 49-yarder to Isaac TeSlaa, first and 10 at the Detroit 35 with four oh six left and the game tied, came from the shotgun with motion, against four rushers.

The Jets sent five or more rushers at Goff more often than anyone has this season: 17 of his 36 dropbacks, 47 percent, the fifth-highest rate any offense faced this week, after 22 percent against the Saints and 32 in Buffalo. Goff completed all 15 throws he made against it, for a hundred 59 yards and both touchdowns. Against four or fewer rushers he went 10 of 17 for a hundred 10. The accuracy came back with it: 27 of 32 throws catchable, 84 percent, sixth this week, after 68 and twentieth in Buffalo. What has not moved is the traffic. Five of 32 throws were contested, 16 percent, and that makes three games at 15 or 16 percent, more than double last season's seven. No interception-worthy throw this time, after one in each of the first two games. No throwaways for a second straight week. Neither of the two sacks was charted on him, after all four were in Buffalo. And he was outside the pocket on six of 36 dropbacks, two of them scrambles, 17 percent, against about one dropback in 10 last season.

The run game kept doing the thing that makes no sense on paper. The Jets put seven or more in the box on 18 of Detroit's 26 designed runs; a light box came on eight, 31 percent, 20-fifth of the 32 offenses. Those 26 runs gained a hundred 25 yards, 4.8 a carry, ninth in the league this week. Line the three games up. Light box on 47 percent of runs against the Saints, 5.1 a carry. 72 percent in Buffalo, the lightest looks of the year, 3.3. 31 percent on Sunday, 4.8. Three games, and the one soft-box game is still the worst of the three by a distance. Jahmyr Gibbs ran 14 of his 20 designed carries into seven or more and gained 59 on them, and 40 on the six that found a light box. Last season this offense saw a light box 61 percent of the time and averaged 4.7.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Gibbs led everyone on the field with 37.9: 20 carries for 99 two touchdowns, seven catches on eight targets for 65 and a third. Goff, 19.4 on 25 of 32 for 269 two scores. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught four of eight targets for 19 and a touchdown, 9.9. TeSlaa caught all three of his targets for 66. For the Jets, Smith scored 26 on 31 of 37 for 321 three touchdowns, Wilson 21.7 on 10 catches for a hundred seven and a score, and Sadiq 20 on seven catches for a hundred five and a score.

One last word on the yardstick. Every "last season" in this episode is the 2025 Lions, a different group in places and a year older everywhere. This is the final week that comparison runs; from here on the measure is this team's own season.

For anyone joining now: Detroit went nine and eight last season, beat New Orleans 31 to 30 in overtime, lost at Buffalo 41 to 31 on a Thursday, and beat the Jets 31 to 24, so they are two and one. Last week's notebook listed four things moving the same way and three that had reversed. Of the four, three held: play-action is up for a third game, screens are down again at two of 36 dropbacks, and Goff's contested throws are double last season for a third game. The fourth, the rising rate of five or more rushers, broke, from 55 percent to 20, and the defense had five sacks without it. Of the three reversals, the run game's worst day still came against its lightest boxes, and Goff's catchable rate and his quarterback-fault sacks both swung back to the good side. The new line is the fake producing more than the dropback for the first time this season. At Carolina next, count the box, and watch whether four rushers keep getting home.

That's your Lions — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Lions show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._