Lions 26, Panthers 32 — Week 4: Fourteen Red-Zone Snaps, Two Scores

First and 10 at the Carolina 15, seven 19 left in the game, down 32 to 19. An incompletion to Sam LaPorta, two more to Amon-Ra St. Brown, a delay of game and a false start later, it was fourth and 20 at the 25. On that snap Jared Goff threw short right to St. Brown for four, St. Brown pitched it back to Jahmyr Gibbs, and Gibbs got nine more to the 12, seven yards short. The Lions scored on their next drive, LaPorta from eight yards with three 42 left, and got the ball back at their own 13 with two oh six left, down six, no timeouts. The last snap was fourth and 13 at the 10, Goff to Isaac TeSlaa for 12, a yard short. Carolina won 32 to 26, and Detroit is two and two.

The passing offense opens on yardage, because the yardage and the scoreboard disagree. Goff threw 52 times and completed 32 for 412 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, and was sacked once. Those 53 pass plays were worth +12.3 expected points added — expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth. At the rate Detroit passed over the first three weeks, they would have been worth about +14, so a big yardage game was a little under this offense's own standard. 49 percent of them were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. The two longest went for a hundred six yards and produced six points. 49 to Jameson Williams with 21 seconds left in the half reached the Carolina 23, and after two incompletions Bates kicked a 41-yarder to tie it at 16. 57 to TeSlaa in the third reached the 12 and ended in a 26-yarder. Detroit ran 14 snaps inside the Carolina 20 and scored two touchdowns. The charting adds that Goff's throws were catchable on 35 of 52, 67 percent, eighteenth of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 77 percent across the first three games. 10 were contested, a defender arriving with the ball, 19 percent, and three were dropped.

The run game is short to tell: 15 rush plays, all Gibbs, 46 yards, one touchdown from a yard out, and a third of them successful. By expected points it came to close to zero, against about −1 at the rate of the first three weeks, so it was not worse than usual, only smaller. 11 of the 15 came before halftime. And the light boxes came back. Carolina put six or fewer defenders in the box on 10 of Detroit's 15 designed runs, 67 percent, the fifth-lightest fronts any of the 30 charted offenses saw this week, after 47 percent across the first three games. Detroit gained about three yards a designed run against them, after about four and a half before.

The pass defense is the number that lost the game. Carolina's 44 pass plays, three sacks included, were worth +20.5 expected points, and on defense a positive number is the bad direction. At the rate this defense allowed over the first three weeks, those same 44 would have been worth about +8. 52 percent were successful. Bryce Young went 29 of 41 for 329 yards and two touchdowns, and Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 of 16 targets for a hundred 92 and both scores, the first a 32-yarder on second and 10 two snaps after John Metchie converted fourth and four. Detroit sent five or more pass rushers on only seven of Young's 45 dropbacks, 16 percent, 20-seventh of the 30 charted defenses this week, after 35 percent across the first three games. Detroit finished with three sacks, and the biggest defensive snap of the game by win probability — the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — was the first of them: third and two at the Carolina 45, Detroit up three to nothing in the first quarter, McNeill's sack for 10 yards, nine points of win probability. Carolina went two for two on fourth down, both throws.

The run defense held its per-play line and lost the long ones. Carolina's 26 rush plays were worth minus point three expected points — on defense a negative number is the good direction — against about +2.4 at this defense's earlier rate. Carolina converted five of 12 third downs. But Chuba Hubbard broke four runs for 84 yards, 15 for the first touchdown, 25 to set up the second, 32 on the first snap of the fourth quarter and 12, and the other 16 gained 38. The box was heavy: six or fewer on seven of Carolina's 25 designed runs, 28 percent, the same rate as the first three games. Carolina gained about five yards a designed run into it, after about four and a quarter allowed before.

The turning point followed the TeSlaa catch. Down 22 to 16 with seven 53 left in the third, first and 25 after an unnecessary roughness penalty on Brock Wright, Goff went deep left to TeSlaa for 57 yards to the Carolina 12: 15 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. Gibbs ran for four to the eight, then two incompletions, to Gibbs and to LaPorta on third and six, and Bates kicked a 26-yarder, 22 to 19. Carolina answered with 85 yards in seven plays, the last two Hubbard runs of 25 two, and led 29 to 19. Detroit's next drive reached the Carolina 38 and ended in a punt on fourth and 19, after a false start and two incompletions deep over the middle.

What repeats. Last week's notebook said to count the box and watch whether four rushers kept getting home. The box held its shape, seven or more on 18 of 25 Carolina designed runs, and still gave up five a run. Detroit rushed four or fewer on 38 of 45 dropbacks, finished with three sacks, and Young was charted catchable on 73 percent of his throws. The offense's strangest line repeated: light boxes on two-thirds of its runs and about three yards a run, after 47 percent and about four and a half over the first three games, so the softer fronts came with the shorter runs once more. The play fake fell back, 11 of 53 dropbacks, 21 percent, eighteenth of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 35 percent across the first three games, though it gained more per throw again: seven of 11 for a hundred 16, about 10 and a half a throw, against 25 of 41 for 296, about seven. Motion fell too, to 33 percent of charted plays, 20-seventh of 30. The one for the notebook is the pass defense, which last week's episode said was still waiting on its good week. It has not had it yet.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Goff, 20.5. LaPorta, 18.4 on eight catches from a team-high 13 targets for 84 and the touchdown. Gibbs, 15.7: 15 carries for 46 and a score, four catches. Williams, 13.2 on six catches for a hundred two. St. Brown, 11.5 on eight catches for 75, and TeSlaa, 11.5 on four for 95. For Carolina, McMillan scored 38.2 and Hubbard 25.4.

That's your Lions — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Lions show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._